QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP (SPCX)
As of 2026-11-08 · 9/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -33% · downside -43% · upside +19%
Section 13's peer-multiple base is the wrong one because S21/S23/S86 give SPCX's own Q3 2026 revenue of $14,575M and operating income of $2,791M, so I use the Q3 2026 run-rate as the single base. Annualizing Q3 2026 revenue to $58.30B and dividing $1,624.01B EV (N11) gives 27.9x EV/Sales; annualizing Q3 2026 operating income to $11.16B gives about 145x EV/EBIT, and Q3 2026 net income of $4,404M is inflated by $1,025M other income plus a $390M tax benefit (S21). The market is capitalizing a 161.4% growth quarter as if the Anthropic block at 34.5% of revenue, cancellable on 90 days' notice from early 2027 (S56), and Q3 2026 capex of $19.593B (S23) do not matter. Base case loses Anthropic: $58.30B x 65.5% = $38.19B revenue; at the same 27.9x EV plus $51.01B net cash (N9) gives $1,115B equity, -33.4% vs $1,675.02B market cap (N6). Upside is +19.4% on 20% revenue growth at the same multiple, downside is -43.0% with a further 15% SI price/mix haircut; the asymmetry and dated catalysts make this a short, not a pass.
Key numbers
- Share price: $134.27
- Market cap: $1,675.02B
- Price / book: 9.48x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was an inflection quarter on paper: revenue $14,575 million (+161.4% vs Q3 2025), income from operations $2,791 million and net income $4,404 million, but the SI segment supplied most of the growth ($7,560 million of revenue vs $813 million) and the bottom line carried $1,025 million of net other income (unrealized gains on affiliates and digital assets) plus a $390 million tax benefit from a valuation-allowance release, so operating, not net, earnings are the read. Connectivity grew 69.5% with a 98.9% jump in segment operating income, while Space slipped to a $(7) million operating loss as Starship R&D rose $376 million. Neither the 10-Q MD&A nor the earnings release gives numeric forward guidance; Item 1A reports no material change in risk factors.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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