QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -30% · upside +58%
At $16.21 the market pays 28.5x TTM net income to common of $737.9M and 1.86x book for a 6.5% ROE; that is not a deep-value price, so section 13's -61% downside to BAC's 11.1x P/E is not usable because it rerates the stock on valuation alone. Keeping today's 28.5x (N24), the base value is $737.9M / 1,297.84M = $0.5686 EPS x 28.5 = $16.20, essentially today's price (0%). A 30% earnings cut to $516.5M gives $0.398 x 28.5 = $11.34 (-30%), while the 2027 guided $0.90 EPS at the same 28.5x gives $25.65 (+58%). The base is not +30% and the downside is below -25%, so the rule says watch, not long; I would not short because 2027 guidance, a 17.0% capital ratio and 12 straight profitable quarters give a credible path to the upside case.
Key numbers
- Share price: $16.21
- Market cap: $21.04B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $4.73B
- P/E (TTM): 28.5x
- Price / book: 1.86x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Latest 10-K describes SoFi as a bank holding company with SoFi Bank and three reportable segments—Lending, Technology Platform and Financial Services—spanning borrow, save, spend, invest and protect. The XBRL table reports FY2025 revenue of $619.4M, pre-tax income of $525.9M, net income to common of $481.3M and total equity of $10.49B. The oldest annual report provided is a blank-check company with no operations or operating revenue and a proposed January 2021 merger with Social Finance, so the business changed from a shell to an operating bank platform.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
SoFi has built real revenue scale (revenue $103.3M FY2020 to $619.4M FY2025, pre-tax income from -$328.5M to +$525.9M) but its own 10-K describes no durable moat: it competes on seven separate fronts, and in deposits, brokerage and platform services the filing names rivals that are larger, older, better known, or able to undercut it on price. The prime lending market it lends into is called "highly fragmented and competitive." Returns on the capital used to get here are still thin — net income to common of $481.3M FY2025 against total equity of $10.49B, with diluted shares up from 73.85M (FY2020) to 1,251.77M (FY2025).
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (10-Q filed 2026-11-05) shows total net revenue of $1,385.1 million, +44% year over year, GAAP net income of $241.0 million and diluted EPS of $0.18, with net interest margin at 6.14% and the credit provision up 60% to $14.7 million; nine months to Sep 2026 revenue was $3,704.1 million (+43%) and net income $564.3 million (+83%). Growth is lending-led (record $16.9 billion of Q3 originations) and fee-led in Financial Services (Loan Platform Business added $153.4 million), while Technology Platform revenue fell 24% after a large client exited. Deposits reached $51.3 billion at Sep 30, 2026 (+37% from Dec 31, 2025) and total risk-based capital was 17.0%, and the same quarter's earnings release raised FY2026 guidance to $5.04 billion adjusted net revenue and introduced a 2027 outlook of about $6.4 billion adjusted net revenue and $0.90 EPS.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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