QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
SITIME Corp (SITM)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -34% · upside +49%
At $416.92 the market pays 17.97x TTM EV/Sales, 109.0x EV/EBITDA and 476.0x P/E on TTM revenue $683.0M, EBIT $6.0M and net income to common $26.5M [N1, N23, N24, N27, N10, N12, N15]. The six-year cycle produced average operating income of -$41.5M and average EBITDA of -$22.6M, so there is no positive normalized-earnings base; I use section 13's TTM revenue base because the July 2026 Renesas acquisition permanently scaled the business, not because the cycle is benign [S2, S35]. Keeping today's 17.97x EV/Sales multiple, a -35% revenue case is $444M revenue -> $7.98B EV + $324.4M cash - $12.0M leases = $8.29B equity / 30.21M shares = ~$274 (-34%), while +50% revenue is $1,024.5M -> $18.41B EV + net cash = $18.72B / 30.21M = ~$620 (+49%) [N10, N23, N19, N20, N5]. That leaves the short rule unmet (upside +49% > +25%) and the long rule unmet (downside -34% < -25%), so the stock is a watch: AI/TPD growth is real, but Q3 2026 GAAP operating income was only $8.3M versus $129.5M non-GAAP and cash fell to $324.3M after the deal [S31, S29].
Key numbers
- Share price: $416.92
- Market cap: $12.59B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $683.0M
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 109.0x
- P/E (TTM): 476.0x
- Price / book: 3.61x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
SiTime sells silicon MEMS Precision Timing parts — oscillators, clock ICs, resonators and embedded synchronization software — as a fabless designer, mostly through distributors who resell to end customers, with design cycles of six months to three years and product lives up to ten years. The record is sharply cyclical: revenue went $116.2M (FY2020) to $283.6M (FY2022), fell -49% to $144.0M (FY2023), then recovered to $202.7M (FY2024) and $326.7M (FY2025), while operating income stayed negative in FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 (-$107.2M, -$115.2M, -$67.0M) because gross profit dollars ($175.0M in FY2025) do not cover a much larger operating cost base. Between the oldest 10-K here (FY2020) and the latest, the portfolio was widened from three technology pillars and oscillators/resonators/clock ICs to four pillars including software, with clocking added via Aura (December 2023) and a proposed ~$1.5B cash-plus-stock purchase of Renesas' timing business signed February 4, 2026.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Nothing in the sources shows a durable advantage: management describes competing on design speed and customer retention, not brand, scale, cost or licences, while listing 13 mostly larger rivals. The record supports that - revenue hit a record $326.7M in FY2025 but GAAP operating income was -$67.0M, gross margin sat at 53.6% versus 64.5% at the FY2022 peak, and operating income was negative in four of six years FY2020-FY2025 for a cumulative -$249.1M. The one consistent positive is cash: operating cash flow was positive every year FY2020-FY2025 ($87.2M in FY2025). Customers are concentrated (top three distributors 59% of FY2025 revenue, Apple 17%) on cancellable purchase orders, so the switching-cost claim is not evidenced in the sources.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended Sep 30, 2026) revenue was $298.7 million versus $83.6 million a year ago (+257%), with the Timing business acquisition (closed July 1, 2026) contributing TPD product sales into the period. GAAP gross margin fell to 51.6% from 53.5% on $61.8 million of acquired-intangible amortization and $3.0 million of inventory step-up, leaving GAAP operating income of only $8.3 million and GAAP net income of $4.4 million, against non-GAAP operating income of $129.5 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $324.3 million at Sep 30, 2026 after the $1,499.3 million cash portion of the acquisition, part-funded by $1,350.0 million of 0% convertible notes issued in May 2026; operating cash flow for the nine months to Sep 2026 was $64.4 million. Neither the 10-Q nor the Nov 4, 2026 release gives numeric guidance; the release only says the outlook will be discussed on the call.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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