QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -3% · downside -24% · upside +13%
The market is paying an $85.0M enterprise value (N21) for a business with $9.9M TTM revenue (N9), -322.1% gross margin (N10) and -$177.4M TTM free cash flow (N17), but $198.0M of cash and short-term investments (N18) means the equity is largely a cash box: at today's 8.55x EV/Sales (N22) the base is about $3.11, -3.4% from $3.22 (N1). The downside uses a rerated 2.61x EV/Sales after the 2026-08-17 Uber demand warning (S34) and 2026-08-28 Uber split (S67): 2.61 x $9.9M = $25.8M EV + $188.5M net cash = $214.3M / 87.88M shares = $2.44, -24.3%. The upside uses 13.32x only if the 2026-11-05 guidance raise to $12M and opex cut (S102) hold: 13.32 x $9.9M = $131.9M EV + $188.5M = $320.4M / 87.88M = $3.65, +13.2%; a 4x revenue scenario to $39.6M at today's 8.55x would be $6.00 (+86%), but that is not the base. I would watch: not long because the base is not +30% and gross margin is negative, and not short because the cash floor and 35.5% short interest (N27) can squeeze.
Key numbers
- Share price: $3.22
- Market cap: $283.0M
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $9.9M
- Price / book: 0.93x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
The FY2020 filing is a blank-check shell (Patricia Acquisition Corp.) with $9,438 of cash and no operations; the FY2025 filing is an operating autonomous-delivery company running a fleet of over 2,000 sidewalk robots with integrations into Uber Eats and DoorDash. Revenue is still tiny — $207,545 in FY2023, $1.8M in FY2024, $2.7M in FY2025 — and gross profit went to -$15.4M in FY2025 against those $2.7M of sales, with an operating loss of -$112.8M and operating cash burn of -$80.2M. The model under construction is delivery fees plus out-of-home robot advertising and software/data licensing, with the January 2026 Diligent Robotics deal adding hospital (Moxi) robots as a second, indoor vertical.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Serve shows no durable competitive advantage in the sources. Gross profit was negative in every year from FY2022 to FY2025 (-$15.4M on $2.7M revenue in FY2025), operating losses widened to -$112.8M in FY2025, and the 10-K describes a highly competitive market against human couriers, manual healthcare logistics and other robotics providers. Its only visible moat candidates are 62 patent matters (36 granted, mostly US) expiring May 2029-June 2042 and a permissive-but-nonexclusive state rulebook that lets competitors operate too; the 10-K itself says its IP protections are limited.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $2.835M, up 313% YoY, but the 10-Q flags lower-than-expected Uber Eats volume and expects reduced demand through the remainder of 2026. Gross loss widened to $(7.555)M and net loss was $(59.230)M as costs and acquisition integration expenses rose. Cash and marketable securities were $198.0M at Sep 30, 2026, and the investor presentation gives FY2026 revenue guidance of $9–10M.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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