QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. (SEI)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case -79% · downside -100% · upside +44%
The market is pricing SEI on TTM EBIT of $213.9M, but the cycle-normalized figure is $148.8M (15.9% average margin x $936.4M TTM revenue), $65.1M lower. At today's 9.2x EV/EBIT the $1.97B EV leaves only about $1/share after $1.36B net debt; at 10x normalized EBIT equity is about $0.13B, or roughly $12/share (-79%), and at 8x it is wiped out, while a 15x normalized multiple gets to roughly $83/share (+44%). That is not a short under the rule because the upside case exceeds +25%, and the equity sits between the cases, so the call is watch: the operating momentum and contracts are real, but the levered equity only works if TTM earnings are the new norm rather than a peak.
Key numbers
- Share price: $57.77
- Market cap: $608.9M
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $936.4M
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 5.6x
- P/E (TTM): 8.1x
- Price / book: 0.48x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Solaris is now a two-segment equipment and services company: Power Solutions provides power generation, control and distribution to data center, energy and commercial/industrial customers, while Logistics Solutions provides proppant/chemical handling equipment and field/logistics services for oil and gas completions. FY2025 consolidated revenue was $622.2M with operating income of $135.4M, versus $103.0M revenue and a $59.9M operating loss in FY2020. The change from the FY2020 oilfield-only business is visible in the Power segment's 88% FY2025 segment revenue concentration in one data center customer and in the 2025/2026 long-term power arrangements.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The filings claim a narrow edge, not a moat: Solaris says it is one of only a few companies able to deliver an integrated large behind-the-meter power solution, and it cites patent-protected technology only in the logistics segment. The numbers do not read like a durable advantage. Operating income swung from -$59.9M (FY2020) to $135.4M (FY2025) on the XBRL record, i.e., a cycle, not a stable spread, and the FY2025 power book leaned on one data center customer for roughly 47% of consolidated revenue. Competition is named as the electricity grid itself, fragmented privately held distributed-energy firms, and oilfield logistics/frac/sand companies on the logistics side, with price listed among the principal competitive factors.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $341.089 million, up from $166.843 million in Q3 2025 and up 55% sequentially, with Solaris Power Solutions driving growth while Logistics declined. Operating income was $66.985 million in Q3 2026 and $174.057 million for the nine months to Sep 2026; cash was $399.5 million at Sep 30 2026 and no shares were repurchased in the quarter. The earnings release raised numeric Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 Adjusted EBITDA guidance, and the 10-Q risk-factor update focuses on execution and integration of the acquired labor-intensive GESA and Omega businesses.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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