QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Sharplink, Inc. (SBET)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +1% · downside -36% · upside +44%
The market is valuing $2.17B of common equity at $1.36B, 0.63x book (N22,N19,N6), because the ETH treasury produces GAAP losses and cash burn. Book per share is $9.98 ($2.17B/217.35M, N19,N5); base 0.63x = $6.29 (+0.8%), downside 0.40x = $3.99 (-36%), upside 0.90x = $8.98 (+44%). The cases use book, not normalized earnings: TTM net income is -$1.06B but operating cash flow is only -$34.2M (N12,N13), so the loss is largely non-cash; FY2023-FY2024 revenue fell -26% (S24) but the 2025 pivot makes prior-cycle earnings non-comparable, so I do not normalize. Verdict watch: the equity discount is real but not enough to clear the long rule because downside is worse than -25%, and the upside is too high for a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $6.24
- Market cap: $1.36B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $52.8M
- Price / book: 0.63x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Sharplink is now two businesses: an ETH Treasury Management segment launched June 2, 2025 that raised $3.2 billion of new capital and held approximately 868,699 ETH as of March 6, 2026, and a legacy Affiliate Marketing segment (PAS.net plus U.S. state sportsbook sites) that management explicitly no longer treats as the primary growth platform. Reported revenue went $5.0M (FY2023) to $3.7M (FY2024) to $28.1M (FY2025) as treasury activity began to register, but native staking rewards contributed only $24,182 of the FY2025 figure, and FY2025 operating income was -$733.9M with net income to common of -$734.6M against that $28.1M of revenue. The company has no long-term debt, $28.5M of cash at 12/31/2025 and $2.42B of total equity, so the story is balance-sheet and ETH-price driven, not an operating-earnings story.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
These sources show no durable competitive advantage: no brand, cost, network, switching-cost, scale or licence moat is described anywhere, and the company's own risk factors say the ETH treasury strategy is untested, funded by equity sales, and concentrated in a single volatile asset. Revenue went $3.5M (FY2022) to $5.0M (FY2023) to $3.7M (FY2024) to $28.1M (FY2025), but operating income was negative in every year of the XBRL, including -$733.9M in FY2025 against $28.1M of revenue. Total equity is $2.42B at FY2025 year-end versus $2.1M at FY2024, growth that came from financing rather than retained returns. The sources name no competitors, so no peer comparison is possible.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest 10-Q (quarter ended Sep 30 2026, filed Nov 6 2026) shows Q3 2026 native staking reward revenue of $8,540 thousand and $27,231 thousand for the nine months to Sep 30 2026, but the excerpt gives no prior-period comparison, so no sales trend can be calculated. The balance sheet is dominated by ETH and liquid-staking-token holdings; carrying values are below quarter-end market values and Q3 impairment charges were small. The excerpt describes a buyback policy but gives no amounts, no cash or margin figures, and the sources do not include the same-quarter earnings release, so guidance cannot be assessed from them.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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