QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -28% · upside +24%
The market is not missing the growth story — Q3 2026 revenue rose 38% to $2.155B, deliveries rose 46%, and R2 was already the best-selling vehicle — it is missing a margin of safety. I hold today's 2.87x EV/Sales across all three cases because no dated filing, guidance, insider trade or balance-sheet event justifies a different multiple; the 1.0x-4.0x range in section 13 is a peer sensitivity, not the base. On $6.48B TTM revenue, 2.87x gives ~$18.60B EV plus $1.06B net cash, or ~$13.59/share (base -0.1%); a 30% revenue haircut gives ~$9.74 (-28.5%) and a 25% uplift gives ~$16.81 (+23.5%). The company still has TTM EBIT of -$3.43B, net income to common of -$2.97B and FCF of -$4.19B, so the equity is a financing-and-execution option rather than an earnings value. I am watch, not long (base lacks +30% and downside is worse than -25%) and not short (base is not -30% and liquidity/short-covering catalysts cut both ways).
Key numbers
- Share price: $13.61
- Market cap: $19.68B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $6.48B
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Rivian is a US-based EV maker that designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles direct to consumer and commercial customers, now reported in two segments — Automotive and Software and Services. Between the oldest annual report here (FY2021, when it produced 1,015 and delivered 920 vehicles for $55.0M of revenue) and the latest, it became a $5.39B-revenue FY2025 business with its first positive gross profit ($144.0M) but still a $3.58B operating loss and $3.65B net loss to common. The mix has shifted from a stated 'ecosystem' of vehicles plus fledgling services toward a two-segment structure, a software licensing joint venture with Volkswagen, and a midsize platform (R2/R3) whose deliveries are expected to start in Q2 2026. Automotive regulatory credit sales are a revenue line whose continuation the company calls uncertain.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Rivian shows a first positive gross profit in FY2025 ($144.0M on $5.39B revenue) after four straight years of gross losses, but operating income was still -$3.58B and operating cash flow -$779.0M, so the financial record shows improving unit economics rather than a proven durable advantage. The only moats the 10-K claims are self-asserted: product/brand differentiation, vertically integrated technology and direct-to-customer relationships, plus a newly monetizable software stack and an VW joint venture that will use Rivian's zonal ECU architecture. Against that, the 10-K defines the competitive set as all ICE and EV vehicles sold each year plus downstream remarketing, service, charging, software and fleet-management providers, and it concedes mostly single-sourced parts and battery materials. Net: no demonstrated cost, network or switching-cost advantage in the numbers provided.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose 38% year over year to $2.155B on 19,248 deliveries (+46%), with consolidated gross profit of $176M (8% margin) but an operating loss of $(881)M. Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments were $5.502B at September 30, 2026, while Q3 operating cash use was $(758)M and free cash flow was $(1,124)M. FY2026 guidance improved to 67,000-70,000 deliveries, adjusted EBITDA of $(1.85)B-$(1.75)B, and capex of $1.40B-$1.50B. The 10-Q risk factors still cite a history of losses and no expected profitability for the foreseeable future.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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