QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -86% · downside -94% · upside -2%
Rigetti is a negative-earnings, cash-burning quantum hardware developer: TTM revenue is $13.4M against a $3.89B EV, or 291.62x EV/Sales, while EBITDA is -$87.2M and FCF is -$87.6M. Using the dated October 2026 sector de-rating as the catalyst for a lower peer-band multiple, my base case applies 50x to the FY2022-FY2025 average revenue of $10.75M (beside $13.4M TTM), giving about $1.67/share or -86%; the 20x downside gives about $0.71/share or -94%. The upside case only reproduces today's price by applying QBTS's 285.16x EV/Sales to TTM revenue, so the market already pays the top peer multiple and offers no margin of safety. I would short, with medium conviction because 21.3% short interest can squeeze; no operating-earnings normalization is possible because every year FY2022-FY2025 was loss-making.
Key numbers
- Share price: $11.75
- Market cap: $3.92B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $13.4M
- Price / book: 7.30x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Rigetti is a vertically integrated superconducting quantum computing company that still earns most of its revenue from technology development contracts, with QPU sales (since 2023) and cloud QCaaS as the intended future mix. The financial record is a shrinking top line against a persistent cash burn: revenue fell from $13.1M in FY2022 to $7.1M in FY2025 and gross profit from $10.2M to $2.1M, while operating loss was -$109.1M in FY2022 and -$84.7M in FY2025. The FY2025 balance sheet was rebuilt by equity issuance ($546.2M total equity, 309.76M diluted shares) rather than by operations, with operating cash flow of -$58.5M and capex of $18.7M in FY2025. The oldest annual report on file is not an operating-company document at all: it is the Supernova Partners Acquisition Company II blank-check 10-K that precedes the Rigetti merger.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
No durable advantage is visible in the numbers: revenue fell in every year from FY2022 ($13.1M) to FY2025 ($7.1M), gross profit fell from $10.2M to $2.1M, and the operating loss widened to $84.7M in FY2025 after narrowing to $68.5M in FY2024, on capex of $18.7M against $7.1M of revenue. The 10-K concedes the market is "highly competitive" and names IBM, Google, Microsoft, IonQ, D-Wave, Quantinuum and PsiQuantum as developers of both quantum hardware and software, plus Amazon and large cloud/chip incumbents; Rigetti's own claim to be "favorably positioned" comes with no supporting metric. The only performance evidence offered is internal-testing gate fidelity on 84- and 36-qubit machines, while the 10-K states no computer, including Rigetti's, has reached quantum advantage or LFTQC, and the roadmap has been changed in 2018, 2022, 2023 and 2025. This is a business with no demonstrated pricing power, no scale, and a cost-per-qubit advantage that exists only as an assumption.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest quarterly report in the sources is the Q2 2026 10-Q (quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed 2026-08-06): revenue jumped to $5.1 million for the three months (+185%) and $9.5 million for the six months (+191%) on 9-qubit Novera system sales, with total gross profit of $2.2 million and $3.6 million, but loss from operations widened to $28.1 million and $54.0 million as R&D and SG&A scaled. The $52.6 million Q2 2026 GAAP net loss is not an operating result: it includes a $29.6 million non-cash warrant fair-value loss, and the earnings release's non-GAAP net loss is $16.0 million. Cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments were $541.3 million at June 30, 2026, with $32.0 million of operating cash used in the six months and no buyback activity in financing. Neither the 10-Q nor the same-quarter earnings release gives numeric revenue or EPS guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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