QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Replimune Group, Inc. (REPL)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction low · base case -40% · downside -90% · upside +15%
Replimune now has an approval and a launch, but the equity is priced as if TUDRIQEV is already a $250M-plus product: at $22.26 the $1.90B EV (N22) needs $253M of revenue at Amgen's 7.51x EV/Sales and $133M even at Allogene's generous 14.30x (S1). I use a base case of about $75M revenue at 14.30x, or EV $1.07B plus $208.1M net cash (N20), for equity near $13.5/share, -40%; the downside is a failed launch worth net cash, about $2.20/share or -90%; upside is $155M revenue at the same 14.30x, about $25.6/share, +15%. The market is treating the launch as de-risked even though Q2 FY2027 revenue was zero, first delivery was 2026-10-06, and only 15 institutions had prescribed by 2026-10-23 with no numeric guidance (S29, S31). I would short, but size small: the 2026-08-06 approval/launch and 24.4% short interest make both tails violent.
Key numbers
- Share price: $22.26
- Market cap: $2.11B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Price / book: 10.31x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Replimune is a clinical-stage oncolytic immunotherapy company with no approved product and no product revenue: the FY2026 10-K (dated 2026-06-29) states plainly that none of its product candidates have been approved for sale, and the six-year XBRL table carries no revenue line at all. The business has been funded by the balance sheet while losses compounded from -$80.0M operating income in the FY ended 2021-03-31 to -$319.9M in the FY ended 2026-03-31, with operating cash flow of -$61.4M widening to -$280.3M. What changed between the oldest 10-K here (FY2021) and the newest (FY2026) is the bet itself: the lead was RP1 plus cemiplimab in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CERPASS with Regeneron, 180 patients after amendment) with RP3 dosing underway; it is now RP1 plus nivolumab in anti-PD-1 failed melanoma, which has taken two complete response letters, is on a Class 1 resubmission with an August 2, 2026 action date, and sits in a company that has no in-house sales force after a post-CRL reduction in force.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Replimune shows no durable competitive advantage in the supplied sources: it has never generated product revenue, has no gross margin or return history to measure, and operating losses widened to -$319.9M in FY2026 from -$80.0M in FY2021. Its only claimed differentiators are a novel and proprietary RPx platform and a ~63,000 sq ft in-house Framingham plant intended to control supply and cost, neither commercially proven. It competes with large biopharma and many immunotherapy modalities, and RP1 has received two CRLs (July 2025 and April 10, 2026), so the regulatory licence itself is not yet secured.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Fiscal Q2 2027 (three months ended September 30, 2026) is a zero-revenue quarter: TUDRIQEV only became commercially available in early October 2026, so the $57.1 million net loss is entirely operating spend, down from $83.1 million a year earlier on lower R&D and SG&A after the April 2026 restructuring that cut headcount by roughly 55%. Cash and cash equivalents of $307.8 million at September 30, 2026 (versus $268.9 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at fiscal year-end March 31, 2026, after about $141.0 million of August 2026 offering proceeds and a $15.0 million debt draw) is said to fund operations more than twelve months. Post-quarter launch datapoints through October 23, 2026: about 20 institutions placed TUDRIQEV on formulary, over 15 wrote prescriptions, more than 70% of the 200 priority accounts engaged, and payer policies covering a majority of commercially covered lives published. Neither the 10-Q nor the same-quarter earnings release gives numeric revenue guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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