QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (REGN)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -16% · downside -32% · upside +33%
Normalized, the market is paying for peak earnings: median FY2020-FY2025 EBITDA is $4.47B (S2) versus $5.38B TTM (N11), and at REGN's own 14.4x EV/EBITDA (N25) the base equity value is 14.4 x $4.47B = $64.4B EV + $7.31B net cash (N21) = $71.7B, 16% below the $84.97B market cap (N6). The downside case uses the 11.2x BMY multiple on the same mid-cycle EBITDA ($50.1B EV + $7.31B = $57.4B, -32%), while the upside uses 19.7x ABBV on TTM EBITDA ($106.0B EV + $7.31B = $113.3B, +33%); the peer-multiple spread is used only because EYLEA erosion (S5/S25) and the Q3 2026 beat/estimate revisions (S5/S7) are cited operating catalysts, not because the stock is cheap or expensive. That leaves base -16%, downside -32%, upside +33%, a roughly 1:1 risk/reward that neither meets the long rule (base is not +30% or higher) nor the short rule (base is not -30% or lower), so the call is watch with low conviction because the cases point different ways.
Key numbers
- Share price: $904.35
- Market cap: $84.97B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $16.90B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 14.4x
- P/E (TTM): 17.6x
- Price / book: 2.54x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Regeneron is a fully integrated biotech whose FY2025 revenue was $14,342.9M and net income $4,504.9M; the revenue mix is dominated by the EYLEA franchise ($7,891.0M of FY2025 net product sales) and by profit/royalty economics on Dupixent, whose $17,806.7M of FY2025 global sales are recorded by Sanofi. The portfolio is broader than in the FY2020 10-K (EYLEA HD, Evkeeza, Ordspono, Lynozyfic, Veopoz, more Dupixent indications), but the financial cycle still matters: revenue peaked at $16.07B in FY2021, fell to $12.17B in FY2022 and was $14.34B in FY2025, while FY2025 operating income of $3.58B was below FY2021's $8.95B. No TTM or Q3 2026 figures are in the provided sources, so TTM cannot be shown beside the annual cycle.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not show a durable competitive advantage: FY2025 revenue is concentrated in EYLEA HD/EYLEA (31% of total revenues) and Sanofi/Dupixent (41%), and EYLEA U.S. sales fell 42% in FY2025 under branded and biosimilar competition after U.S. exclusivity expired in May 2024. The competitor table shows multiple alternatives for each key franchise, and manufacturing capacity is described as limited rather than a scale advantage. Cash generation remains large ($4.98B FY2025 operating cash flow), but operating income fell to $3.58B in FY2025 from $8.95B in FY2021, so the record looks like a strong but eroding product franchise, not a durable moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2026) revenues were $5,115.8 million versus $3,754.3 million in Q3 2025, income from operations rose to $2,048.2 million from $1,026.8 million, and diluted EPS was $18.45 versus $13.62, with the improvement coming from the operating line rather than other income ($235.9 million in Q3 2026 versus $736.5 million). Growth came from Dupixent global net sales ($6,540.5 million, +35%) and EYLEA HD ($1,082.8 million, +63%), which only partly offset EYLEA ($658.4 million, -49%; total EYLEA plus EYLEA HD $1,741.2 million, -11%). Nine months to September 30, 2026: revenues $13,011.9 million, net income $3,972.8 million, diluted EPS $37.37. The 10-Q also records an October 2026 Sanofi collaboration amendment with a $1.0 billion up-front (after the September 30 balance-sheet date) and April 2026 U.S. government pricing agreements, but the excerpts provided carry no cash, inventory or buyback figures.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.