QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
QUANTA SERVICES, INC. (PWR)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -32% · upside +13%
PWR is a high-quality secular infrastructure contractor, but the price already reflects much of that: 23.6x TTM EV/EBITDA, 48.4x TTM P/E and a 3.9% FCF yield versus the peer EV/EBITDA range of 6.1x-16.2x and P/E range of 19.0x-38.4x (S1, N29, N32, N33). Using section 13's TTM to Sep 30, 2026 EBITDA base of $3.65B and holding today's 23.6x EV/EBITDA, the base value is about $541 (0%); a 30% EBITDA stress gives about $369 (-32%), and the high end of FY2026 EBITDA guidance of $4.09B gives about $610 (+13%) at the same multiple (N15, N25, N5, N1, S31). I keep the company's today multiple and flex EBITDA rather than using section 13's 16x-26x peer band, because a multiple change would need a non-valuation catalyst (S1, N29). Record backlog and raised guidance make this not a short, but the premium and contract/claims risk make it not yet a long; watch for a better entry or evidence of organic growth.
Key numbers
- Share price: $540.90
- Market cap: $81.50B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $37.29B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 23.6x
- P/E (TTM): 48.4x
- Price / book: 7.74x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Quanta is a labor- and equipment-intensive infrastructure contractor serving electric power, power generation, communications, underground utility and pipeline end markets, working largely under fixed-price and unit-price contracts plus project-by-project work under MSAs; as of the FY2020 10-K it reported two segments, Electric Power Infrastructure Solutions (which includes communications) and Underground Utility and Infrastructure Solutions. Between FY2020 and FY2025 revenue rose from $11.20B to $28.48B and operating income from $611.4M to $1.61B, with operating cash flow from $1.12B to $2.23B and capex from $260.1M to $609.2M. The FY2025 10-K flags that the ten largest customers were 30% of FY2025 consolidated revenues and that $983.6M of unapproved change orders and claims were recognized at 12/31/2025, so customer concentration and contract-estimate risk sit on top of the growth.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
PWR's 10-K claims scale, breadth, safety reputation and financial strength as differentiators, and it operates a large equipment fleet (~80,000 owned and leased units at Dec 31, 2025). But the same 10-K says its markets are highly competitive, with large rivals, relatively few barriers to entry in some industries, and price often deciding unit/fixed-price work. The FY2020-FY2025 record shows revenue, gross profit, operating income, net income to common and operating cash flow rising, but the sources give no ROIC/ROE or market-share data to prove durable excess returns.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a record quarter on every headline line: revenues of $12.01 billion (+57.4%), operating income of $1.03 billion (8.5% of revenue, up from 6.8%), net income attributable to common stock of $694.9 million ($4.55 diluted) and adjusted diluted EPS of $6.06 — but a large slice of the growth is bought, with roughly $1.22 billion of Electric and $335 million of Underground and Infrastructure revenue attributable to acquired businesses. Backlog of $63.73 billion (+44.9% vs December 31, 2025) and remaining performance obligations of $41.75 billion (+75.7%) support the raised FY2026 guidance of $41.3–$41.6 billion revenue and $17.90–$18.30 adjusted diluted EPS. Nine-month operating cash flow was $2.94 billion (+167%) and liquidity (credit commitments plus cash) was $5.21 billion at September 30, 2026.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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