QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
PINTEREST, INC. (PINS)
As of 2026-11-10 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -17% · upside +13%
Pinterest is priced at 2.06x EV/Sales TTM (N21) and an 11.4% FCF yield (N26): the cash engine is real, but GAAP earnings and decelerating growth obscure it. Using the same TTM revenue base as section 13, $4.68B (N8), with $1.47B cash/ST investments (N17) and 582.65M shares (N5), today's 2.06x gives $9.64B EV + $1.47B = $11.11B, or $19.07, essentially the $19.06 price (N1). A -20% revenue downside at 2.06x gives $15.76 (-17.3%) and a +15% upside gives $21.55 (+13.1%), so the base is +0%, below the +30% long test, and not the -30% short test. The stock is a watch: the 11.4% FCF yield (N26) and $2.53B TTM buyback (N16) may form a mispricing, but the Q4 2026 guide of 8-12% growth (S102), GAAP losses (S31) and CFO turnover (S37) leave no rule-meeting edge at today's multiple.
Key numbers
- Share price: $19.06
- Market cap: $11.11B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $4.68B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 41.8x
- P/E (TTM): 62.3x
- Price / book: 3.58x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Pinterest is a single-segment, auction-based advertising business built on a visual discovery platform: revenue went from $1.69B in FY2020 to $4.22B in FY2025 while operating income went from -$142.5M to $319.9M, with losses in FY2022 and FY2023 in between. The user base grew from 459M monthly active users (FY2020 10-K) to 619M (FY2025 10-K), still about two-thirds female and now over 50% Gen Z. FY2025 operating cash flow of $1.28B came against only $32.4M of capex and $25.2M of D&A, and the company bought back $927.0M of stock in FY2025 while holding $969.3M cash plus $1.50B of short-term investments. The narrative moved from "media-rich utility" with Story Pins and Product Pins (FY2020) to "AI-powered visual search and discovery platform" with Performance+, Conversions API and clean rooms (FY2025); the brand/performance revenue split was disclosed in FY2020 (performance roughly two-thirds) but not in the FY2025 10-K.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Section 2 answer: no durable competitive advantage is evidenced. Pinterest has protected brand/IP, a user base concentrated in women and Gen Z, and FY2025 operating cash flow of $1.28B, but the 10-K describes low barriers to entry, larger rivals with more data and resources, advertiser concentration, and few long-term advertiser commitments. Operating income was negative in FY2020, FY2022 and FY2023 and positive in FY2021, FY2024 and FY2025, so the six-year record is not a consistent high-return franchise.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $1,173.9 million, up 12% year over year on both a reported and constant-currency basis, with global MAUs at an all-time high of 661 million (+10%), but GAAP earnings fell sharply: net income of $21.5 million (2% margin) versus $92.1 million (9%) in Q3 2025, and the nine months to Sep 2026 produced a $(98.7) million net loss and $(105.2) million operating loss that include $65.5 million of restructuring and $847.7 million of share-based compensation. Adjusted EBITDA was $339.2 million (29% margin) and non-GAAP net income $270.3 million. Q4 2026 guidance is $1,425-1,475 million of revenue (8%-12% growth, modest FX headwind) and $538-588 million of Adjusted EBITDA. The company repurchased $2,039.8 million of Class A stock in the nine months to Sep 2026 and funded a $1.0 billion convertible note and the $465.1 million tvScientific acquisition.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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