QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ (OXY)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -31% · upside +23%
Using section 13's base, normalized FY2021-FY2025 EBITDA of $13.19B (versus TTM EBITDA $13.24B) at today's 5.0x EV/EBITDA gives $65.95B EV, less $9.59B net debt = $56.36B, or $56.38/share, essentially the $56.38 close, so the market is already pricing normalized mid-cycle earnings rather than missing them. The downside uses the FY2020-FY2025 trough-inclusive average EBITDA of $9.72B at 5.0x: $48.60B EV less $9.59B net debt = $39.01B, or $39.02/share (-30.8%). The upside uses $13.19B at a 6.0x re-rate supported by the dated 2026 debt reduction and dividend events: $79.14B EV less $9.59B = $69.55B, or $69.57/share (+23.4%). Because the base case is flat, neither the long nor short rule is met; this is a watch, with the balance-sheet path the main thing that could turn it into a long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $56.38
- Market cap: $56.36B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $23.93B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 5.0x
- P/E (TTM): 8.6x
- Price / book: 1.68x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
OXY is an upstream-led international oil and gas company (Permian, DJ Basin, Gulf of America, Oman, Algeria, Qatar, UAE) whose midstream and marketing segment exists to move and market that production, plus an early-stage low-carbon arm (OLCV). The biggest change between the FY2020 10-K and the FY2025 10-K is structural: the chemical segment (OxyChem) is gone, sold to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion in an all-cash deal completed January 2, 2026 with an estimated $3.2 billion after-tax gain, and reported as discontinued operations in all periods presented. Proved reserves grew from 2,911 MMboe (FY2020) to 4,603 MMboe (FY2025) on sales volumes of 484 to 523 MMboe, while the XBRL record shows how cyclical the earnings base is: pre-tax income swung from -$15.71B (FY2020) to $14.12B (FY2022) to $3.13B (FY2025). No 2026 quarterly figures appear in the sources provided, so this section is annual-report only.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
OXY shows no durable pricing advantage: revenue fell from $36.23B (FY2022) to $21.57B (FY2025) and pre-tax income from $14.12B to $3.13B, and the 10-K states prices are set by forces outside its control, with no commodity hedges in place at December 31, 2025. The one structural asset position visible in the sources is physical: CO2 pipelines/EOR infrastructure and sequestration acreage in Texas, New Mexico and Colorado, plus midstream scale held largely through the equity-method WES investment rather than owned outright. Returns on that asset base are thin — net income to common of $1.61B (FY2025) against total equity of $36.03B, with $8.29B of preferred stock ranking ahead of the common.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The June 30, 2026 10-Q shows a price-led quarter: net sales rose to $8.1 billion in Q2 2026 from $5.2 billion in Q1 2026, oil and gas segment earnings nearly tripled to $2.8 billion, and income from continuing operations was $3,000 million ($2.75 diluted EPS, $2,807 million to common). Results carry $364 million of net items affecting comparability in Q2 2026, while the roughly $3.1 billion OxyChem gain sits in Q1 2026 discontinued operations, not this quarter. Cash generation funded $8.6 billion of debt repayment in the first half; liquidity is $4.2 billion cash plus an undrawn $4.2 billion RCF, and the Board raised the quarterly dividend 8% to $0.28 in August 2026. Risk factors are unchanged from the 2025 Form 10-K and no numeric guidance is given in either the 10-Q or the same-quarter earnings considerations.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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