QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Oklo Inc. (OKLO)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -58% · upside +5%
The market is not missing the cash burn: at $23.55 the $4.60B market cap and $3.05B EV sit above $1.55B net cash while TTM EBIT is -$252.3M, EBITDA -$250.9M and FCF -$452.2M. But the only positive multiple in the key numbers is P/B 1.26x on $3.65B book; at that same multiple current book gives about today's $23.55, a net-cash-only book of $1.55B gives $1.95B / 195.29M shares = $10.00 (-57.5%), and an illustrative full $1.0B ATM at $23.55 adds 42.5M shares and $1.0B book for $5.86B / 237.75M = $24.64 (+4.6%). With no positive earnings or free cash flow to capitalize, a deep-value long is not justified, and the base case is not negative enough versus today's price to make a rules-based short. I would watch, not own, until binding PPAs/revenue and cash-burn visibility improve or the price approaches the net-cash floor.
Key numbers
- Share price: $23.55
- Market cap: $4.60B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Price / book: 1.26x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Oklo is pre-revenue: it designs, builds, owns and operates 15–75 MWe (expandable to 100+ MWe) fast-fission 'Aurora' powerhouses and intends to sell the electricity and heat under power purchase agreements rather than sell reactor designs, with a first deployment target of 2028. The financial record supplied is a pure development spend curve: operating loss widened from -$18.6M (FY2023) to -$52.8M (FY2024) to -$139.3M (FY2025), operating cash flow was -$82.2M in FY2025, and capex jumped to $33.2M in FY2025 from $0.352M in FY2024. The balance sheet was rebuilt by equity issuance (cash $788.4M and total equity $1.48B at 2025-12-31, plus $300.0M gross raised in the December 2025 ATM), and 2026 guidance is for $80–100M of operating cash use and $350–450M of investing cash use. The oldest filing on file (FY2021 10-K) is an AltC Acquisition Corp blank-check shell, so the entire operating business described in the FY2025 10-K arrived via the May 9, 2024 Recapitalization.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Oklo is a pre-revenue development company: the XBRL record shows no revenue line for any of the six years shown and operating losses widening from -$1.8M (FY2022) to -$139.3M (FY2025), so there is no gross margin, return or pricing history that evidences any advantage. The advantage it claims is structural and unproven — being designer, builder, owner and operator selling power under PPAs rather than licensing reactor designs, plus vertical integration into fuel recycling and a DOE licensing pathway at INL. Against that, the 10-K lists a wide field of substitutes (gas, coal, oil, large-scale nuclear, renewables with storage, carbon capture, and other advanced reactors including fusion), and its own NRC custom combined license application was denied without prejudice in 2022, with no NRC approval yet held.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30, filed 2026-11-06, gives no revenue, margin, inventory, cash-balance, or buyback figures in the cited MD&A excerpt. The only P&L number shown is total operating expenses of $209.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 versus $139.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, and management guides 2026 operating cash use of $120 million to $150 million. The risk-factor update says there are no material changes except the items it lists, including AI/data-center demand assumptions. Operational takeaways include Aurora-ID regulatory progress and Groves Isotope Test Reactor first criticality.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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