QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU)
As of 2026-11-08 · 10/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: LONG
Conviction low · base case +48% · downside -25% · upside +68%
Section 13's FY2025 earnings base is stale: Q2 2026 (quarter ended 2026-06-30) net income was already $1,061.1M, so annualizing it gives $4,244.4M versus FY2025's $2.87B. At the N20 20.4x FY2025 P/E, that run-rate is worth $86.59B, or $17.83/share, 48% above the $12.03 close on 2026-11-06; today's $58.41B market cap is only about 13.8x the annualized Q2 2026 run-rate. The market is pricing the Brazil election shock and 90+ NPL of 6.9% as if they permanently impair a 33% ROE franchise, while the leading 15-90 NPL improved to 4.8% and management called the Q2 credit improvement seasonal. I would be long, with the Q3 2026 print and the $1B buyback as catalysts, but conviction is medium because the base relies on annualizing one quarter and the downside is a genuine credit shock.
Key numbers
- Share price: $12.03
- Market cap: $58.41B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): $15.77B
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 20.4x
- Price / book: 5.17x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Nu is a digital consumer-finance platform that started in Brazil and now runs in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, funded through a Brazilian SCFI (Nu Financeira) plus brokerage, asset-management and insurance-brokerage entities, with credit cards still the largest single revenue source (29.1% of FY2025 revenue from credit-card interest, 10.9% from card fees). The FY2025 (calendar 2025) XBRL shows revenue of $15.77B versus $737.1M in FY2020 and a swing from net losses of $364.6M in FY2022 to net income of $2.87B in FY2025, with total equity at $11.29B at 2025-12-31. Between the FY2021 20-F and the FY2025 20-F the regulated perimeter widened from a Brazil-only set of entities to three operating markets plus US/Uruguay support operations, with a Mexican banking conversion approved in April 2025 and preliminary conditional OCC approval for a US national bank on 2026-01-29. All financial figures here stop at 2025-12-31 (about ten months old); no 2026 quarterly figures, customer counts or segment revenue splits appear in these sources.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources support a claimed durable advantage rather than an independently proven one: management says the model is difficult to replicate and cites operating leverage/efficiency, brand, talent, a scalable platform, innovation speed and regulatory licenses, while competition is explicitly from large incumbents, major technology companies and smaller fintech entrants. Scale and profit improved sharply—revenue $737.1M FY2020 to $15.77B FY2025, net income negative through FY2022 then $2.87B FY2025, total equity $11.29B FY2025—but the sources give no ROE, margin or market-share data. Latest financials are FY2025 (period to 2025-12-31); no 2026 quarterly or TTM figures are in the sources.
- ○ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest quarterly filing in the sources is the Q2 2026 6-K results release dated 2026-08-13 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) — Nu is a foreign private issuer, so there is no 10-Q; the 6-K release stands in for it. Q2'26 gross revenue was $5,875.7 million (+39% YoY, +6% FXN QoQ) and net income $1,061.1 million, the first quarter above $1.1 billion (+17% QoQ, +49% YoY), with ROE at 33% and risk-adjusted NIM up 290 bps QoQ to 12.4%. Growth is carried by the credit book ($39.4 billion, +37% YoY) and deposits ($45.3 billion, +18% YoY), while efficiency worsened QoQ (19.5% vs 17.6%) and 90+ NPLs rose to 6.9% (+0.4 p.p. QoQ and YoY). The release gives no numeric guidance, no buyback disclosure and no cash or capital ratios beyond ROE.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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