QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. (NRIX)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -3% · downside -60% · upside -3%
NRIX looks optically cheap at 1.36x EV/Sales and 3.2x EV/EBITDA (N22, N23), but those multiples sit on TTM revenue of $701.9M and EBITDA of $298.4M (N10, N13) that include $653.2M of Q3 FY2026 Roche license revenue (S31, S102); recurring collaboration revenue that quarter was $19.9M against $113.6M of R&D plus G&A (S29, S31). Using section 13's TTM EV/EBITDA base at today's own 3.2x gives $14.82/share, about -3% from $15.30, while cash less leases is $6.08/share, about -60% (N23, N13, N18, N19, N5, N1). I do not use section 13's $52.79 AMGN-multiple upside because it would require a re-rating and no non-valuation catalyst in the record supports that today; the Roche deal and Phase 3 start are real but the base business is still a binary clinical story. That leaves a watch: not a long because the base is not +30%, and not a short because the base is not -30% and the upside optionality plus 18.9% short interest make a short unsupported (N30).
Key numbers
- Share price: $15.30
- Market cap: $1.67B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Aug 31, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $701.9M
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 3.2x
- P/E (TTM): 5.7x
- Price / book: 1.73x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Nurix is a clinical-stage biopharma whose reported revenue comes from collaborations with Gilead, Sanofi and Pfizer; no marketed-product revenue is described. Revenue was $38.6M FY2022, $77.0M FY2023, $54.5M FY2024 and $84.0M FY2025, while operating losses widened to -$285.7M and operating cash flow was -$249.5M in FY2025. From the FY2020 10-K to the latest 10-K, the story shifted from early BTK/CBL-B and cell-therapy programs to bexobrutideg (NX-5948) as the Phase 2 lead, with $482.0M of non-dilutive collaboration financing received as of Nov 30, 2025. TTM figures cannot be shown because the provided sources contain annual XBRL facts only.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Nurix has no product revenue, no positive operating year in the six fiscal years FY2020-FY2025, and no measurable return record: FY2025 revenue of $84.0M came entirely from collaborations against an operating loss of $285.7M and operating cash outflow of $249.5M. Its own 10-K frames the advantage as a belief ("we believe" its technology, development experience and IP portfolio give it advantages) rather than a demonstrated one - no margin, price or share data back it. Competition is described only qualitatively: multiple companies with clinical-staged BTK degraders, at least one with a clinical-staged CBL-B inhibitor, and rivals the filing says have significantly greater financial resources. The moat case rests on an unapproved modality (no targeted protein degrader approved in the US or Europe) and on collaboration counterparties (Gilead, Sanofi, Pfizer), not on scale, brand or switching costs.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended 2026-08-31) revenue of $673.1M versus $7.9M in Q3 FY2025 is almost entirely a one-time event: $653.2M of license revenue from the Roche collaboration plus a $10.0M Sanofi milestone. Strip that out and the run-rate business is still a collaboration-revenue company ($19.9M in the quarter) with $113.6M of R&D plus G&A in the same three months. The reported $549.8M quarterly net income, $373.1M nine-month net income and $1.1B cash balance are all license-and-upfront driven, not operating profit; cash rose from $592.9M at 2025-11-30 on the $700M Roche upfront with runway stated into 2H 2029. Neither the 10-Q nor the same-quarter earnings release gives numeric revenue or EPS guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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