QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
NEXTNAV INC. (NN)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -33% · downside -68% · upside +16%
Starting from section 13's TTM revenue base of $4.0M (N9), the market is paying a $1.45B market cap and $1.49B EV (N7, N22) for a business with TTM EBITDA of -$67.8M (N12) and FCF of -$53.1M (N16), which is 375.11x EV/Sales (N23). The operating base is shrinking: Q2 2026 revenue fell 4.3% YoY and six-month revenue fell 21.7%, the operating loss widened to $20.2M, and two customers were 85% of Q2 revenue (S29, S31). I assume base-case TTM revenue falls to $2.7M at today's 375.11x EV/Sales, giving EV of $1,012.8M and equity of $974.4M after N20 net debt of $38.4M, or -32.8% versus the $1.45B market cap; downside at $1.35M revenue is -67.7% and upside at FY2025's $4.6M revenue is +16.4%. The FCC petition is a real dated filing (2024-04-16) but no NPRM/R&O date, so I keep the multiple at today's level; this is a short on the math, with binary regulatory headline risk capping conviction.
Key numbers
- Share price: $8.61
- Market cap: $1.45B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $4.0M
- Price / book: 4.35x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
NextNav is a pre-scale PNT (positioning, navigation and timing) service company: FY2025 revenue was $4.6M against an operating loss of $70.2M and operating cash flow of -$50.7M, funded from $44.8M cash plus $107.4M short-term investments at 12/31/2025 while total equity stood at -$86.2M. Its asset is spectrum, not plant: 12 MHz of low-band spectrum (8 MHz of 900 MHz covering over 90% of the U.S. population plus 4 MHz added in 2025), with the commercial future hinging on an FCC Petition for Rulemaking filed April 16, 2024 to run a 5G NR-based NextGen PNT service with partner-funded capex. Since the FY2021 report the story has shifted from a facilities-based, multi-vertical Pinnacle/TerraPoiNT service provider with a >$100B TAM pitch to a single regulatory-dependent NextGen platform, with TerraPoiNT now labeled prior-generation.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
No durable advantage shows up in the numbers: FY2025 revenue was $4.6M against an operating loss of $70.2M and operating cash flow of -$50.7M, the sixth straight year of operating losses, with no gross margin disclosed to argue pricing power. The only durable assets the sources describe are licensed low-band spectrum (12 MHz, including a contiguous 8 MHz 900 MHz block covering over 90% of the U.S. population) and a Pinnacle network hosted on AT&T sites at no recurring cost - but both the AT&T hosting agreement and the FirstNet distribution agreement expire in October 2028. The claimed next moat (NextGen on 5G NR) is contingent on an FCC petition and on partnerships with wireless operators that the 10-K itself lists as a new risk factor, while competitors include eLORAN, LEO satellite timing, the pilot-stage BPS and rivals giving location away for free.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q2 2026 (quarter ended 2026-06-30) revenue was $1.15 million, down 4.3% year over year, and two customers were 85% of it; the operating loss widened to $20.2 million from $17.2 million as R&D and SG&A grew faster than sales and cost of goods sold ($2.06 million) exceeded revenue. The much smaller net loss ($33.8 million vs $63.2 million in Q2 2025) was non-operating: a $21.4 million debt extinguishment gain plus warrant and derivative fair-value swings, not better operations. The balance sheet changed shape in the quarter: all $190 million of the 2028 Notes converted to equity and public warrant exercises brought ~$169.5 million of gross proceeds, leaving $228.8 million of cash and marketable securities at June 30, 2026 (~$298 million total available liquidity including proceeds collected July 1, 2026) and no debt. No numeric guidance was given in either the 10-Q or the earnings release; management says losses will continue.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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