QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +0% · downside -17% · upside +29%
The market is not missing much: at $120.91 NEM trades at 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 13.6x P/E on TTM to Sep 30, 2026 (N28, N31), roughly our base value of ~$121/share (+0.1%). What may be underappreciated is the cash engine — $10.07B TTM free cash flow, an 8.0% FCF yield, $3.74B net cash and $5.67B TTM buybacks (N18, N32, N24, N19) — plus improved FY2026 cost guidance and 2027 project catalysts. But gold price is the swing factor and production is at a 2026 trough with 2027 cost inflation, so 6.0x downside is ~$100 (-17.2%) and 9.5x upside is ~$156 (+29.3%), bracketing a flat base case. That is a watch, not a long: base is not +30%, and I need either a lower price or evidence the cost/FCF improvement deserves a durable peer-high multiple.
Key numbers
- Share price: $120.91
- Market cap: $125.65B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $26.61B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 7.3x
- P/E (TTM): 13.6x
- Price / book: 3.52x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Newmont is a gold miner: 85% of FY2025 Sales were gold, and revenue rose from $11.50B in FY2020 to $22.67B in FY2025 (XBRL) against consolidated gold production of 5,530 thousand ounces in FY2025 versus 5.8 million ounces in 2020, so the revenue step-up tracks the gold price (FY2025 average LBMA $3,432/oz vs $1,770/oz in FY2020) rather than volume. Between the FY2020 and FY2025 business sections the portfolio was rebuilt: the Newcrest acquisition closed November 6, 2023, and a February 2024 divestiture program sold six non-core mines plus the Coffee project through Q4 2025, leaving 13 reportable segments (12 managed mines plus 38.5% of NGM) instead of the five geographic regions reported in FY2020. FY2025 delivered operating cash flow of $10.33B on capex of $3.04B and buybacks of $2.30B, with cash of $7.65B and total equity of $33.87B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Newmont has a real scale position and ore-body quality in favorable jurisdictions, but the 10-K does not describe a brand, network or switching-cost moat. The financial history is commodity-cycle volatile: net income ranged from $2.83B in FY2020 to -$2.49B in FY2023 and $7.08B in FY2025, while operating cash flow stayed positive every year in the data. Competition is fragmented, reserve replacement is competitive, and land licenses are host-government concessions subject to political risk.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 sales were $6,363M versus $5,524M in Q3 2025, with higher gold and silver prices offsetting lower gold volumes; net income attributable to Newmont was $2,475M and adjusted net income was $2,309M. Costs applicable to sales rose to $2,143M and unit costs increased, while cash generation stayed strong: nine-month operating cash flow was $9,477M and free cash flow $7,261M. The company repurchased $5,241M of stock in nine months and declared a $0.26 Q3 dividend; full-year 2026 guidance is 5.3M attributable gold ounces with improved cost guidance of $925 CAS and $1,520 AISC per ounce. The 10-Q reports no material risk-factor changes.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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