QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -36% · downside -87% · upside +39%
Using the section 13 mid-cycle base of $2.33B EBITDA (FY2023-FY2025 average), with TTM EBITDA of $2.67B shown beside it, the equity is worth about $11.38 at today's 8.8x EV/EBITDA ($20.47B EV less $15.24B net debt = $5.23B / 459.28M shares, -36%), $2.27 at 7.0x (-87%) and $24.95 only by marking the base up to TTM EBITDA and paying 10.0x (+39%). The 2026-10-29 Q3 beat and raised FY2026 guide is a dated re-rate catalyst, but net debt is 74% of EV, TTM FCF is -$564.2M and the booked position is still below optimal, so the market is not missing a clean asset value; it is pricing a levered equity whose normalized earnings power is below current TTM. The short rule is not met because the upside case is +39%, so this is a watch until 2027 net yield and free cash flow confirm the turn.
Key numbers
- Share price: $17.92
- Market cap: $8.23B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $10.16B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 8.8x
- P/E (TTM): 9.9x
- Price / book: 2.61x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
NCLH is a three-brand cruise operator earning passenger-ticket and onboard revenue from a 34-ship, ~71,400-Berth fleet at Dec 31 2025, up from 28 ships/~59,150 Berths at Dec 31 2020. The FY2020 10-K shows the COVID-19 voyage suspension; the FY2025 10-K shows a late-2023 Bermuda restructuring and 17 ships on order for 2026-2037. The six-year XBRL shows the cycle: FY2021 revenue $648.0M and operating income -$2.55B, recovering to FY2025 revenue $9.83B and operating income $1.56B. TTM is not provided in the sources.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
NCLH has recognizable owned brands and a multi-brand fleet, but the provided FY2021-FY2025 record shows no cost, network or switching-cost advantage that produced stable returns. Competition is broad: Carnival and Royal Caribbean are named primary competitors, alongside MSC, Viking and Virgin and land-based vacations. Operating income swung from -$2.55B in FY2021 to $930.9M, $1.47B and $1.56B in FY2023-FY2025, but FY2025 pre-tax income was only $428.7M, so operating margin did not carry through to pre-tax income. TTM cannot be shown because the sources stop at FY2025.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) revenue was flat at $2.9 billion because 5.4% more Capacity Days (6.77M vs 6.42M) were offset by lower ticket pricing: Net Yield fell 6.5% as reported, Gross margin per Capacity Day fell 16.7%, and operating income dropped to $624.3 million from $749.4 million as Adjusted EBITDA fell 8.1% to $936.8 million. GAAP net income rose to $491.5 million ($1.07) from $419.3 million ($0.86), but the prior-year figure carried $154.5 million of debt-extinguishment losses and this quarter carries a $19.8 million euro-debt FX gain and a $16.8 million loss on the Oceania Sirena sale; on the company's adjusted basis earnings fell to $513.8 million / $1.12 from $595.8 million / $1.20. Management raised FY2026 guidance to ~$2.55 billion Adjusted EBITDA and ~$1.70 Adjusted EPS, and funded the balance sheet with $950 million of 8.750% notes due 2031 issued in October 2026, leaving Net Leverage at 5.5x at quarter-end.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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