QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -45% · downside -89% · upside -40%
The market is paying 62.69x FY2025 revenue (N21) for a business whose FY2025 operating loss of $611.7M exceeded its $529.8M of revenue (N8, N7) and whose +$82.5M net income (N11) came from non-operating items, not operations. Normalized over the cycle the earnings leg is negative — cumulative FY2020-FY2025 operating income of -$1.41B and free cash flow of -$3.18B (S2) — so the only defensible anchor is EV/Sales, and at peer multiples of 7.85x-37.82x even FY2025 revenue supports $14.66-$77.42 a share, all below $129.49. The bull case is real but unproven: Q2 2026 revenue of $582.3M (+454% YoY) and $40B+ of contracted commitments (S28, S42) could lift the revenue base several-fold, but the sources carry no post-FY2025 quarter in the valuation table and no guidance figures, so I cannot underwrite the growth at today's price. With the base case at -45% and the upside case still -40%, the rule is not met for a short (upside must be +25% or lower) and not met for a long, so this is a watch pending the 2026-11-12 Q3 print.
Key numbers
- Share price: $129.49
- Market cap: $32.76B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): $529.8M
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 397.1x
- Price / book: 7.13x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Nebius in FY2025 is a $529.8M-revenue AI GPU cloud platform, not the $4.79B-revenue Russian internet group of FY2021: the July 2024 divestment removed businesses that were more than 95% of consolidated revenues, assets and employees. FY2025 revenue of $529.8M carried a $611.7M operating loss, while net income of $82.5M (pre-tax $13.8M) came from below the operating line, not from operations. Capex of $4.07B dwarfed $384.8M of FY2025 operating cash flow and was covered from a $3.68B year-end cash balance. These sources contain only FY2025 annual data plus February 2026 capacity disclosures — no Q3 2026 or nine-month 2026 figures — so current scale cannot be anchored on them.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show no durable competitive advantage that is evidenced in the numbers. Nebius competes against the hyperscalers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure, Oracle) and AI-specialist clouds (CoreWeave, Crusoe, Lambda), and it has posted an operating loss every year from FY2021 to FY2025 - the FY2025 loss of $611.7M exceeded revenue of $529.8M - with depreciation alone of $417.9M against that revenue. The claimed moats (full-stack AI-native cloud, in-house hardware, NVIDIA Cloud Partner Reference Platform status, energy-efficient data centres) are management assertions in the 20-F, with no gross margin, utilisation, retention or customer-count figure in these sources to verify them. The company's own risk factors concede it is "capital-intensive and currently not profitable", faces competitors with greater resources and possible aggressive pricing, and depends on raising equity or debt to fund growth.
- ○ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The newest document is a 6-K results release, not a 10-Q (NBIS is a foreign private issuer): Q2 2026 revenue was $582.3M versus $105.1M in Q2 2025 (+454%), and $981.3M for the six months ended June 30, 2026 (+529%). Total operating costs and expenses of $758.2M in Q2 2026 were still 130% of revenue (206% in Q2 2025), so the GAAP result from continuing operations stayed a loss of $(190.4)M even though Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $236.2M. Operating cash flow was +$2,246.1M in Q2 2026 but purchases of property and equipment and intangibles were $5,657.4M, so capex outran operating inflow by a wide margin.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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