QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction high · base case -45% · downside -66% · upside -7%
The market is capitalizing FY Sep 2026 peak earnings — $99.34B EBIT (N13) on $133.19B revenue (N11) — at a headline 7.5x EV/EBIT (N30) and 9.2x P/E (N32), but Micron's own six-year record shows operating income swinging from $9.70B (FY2022) to -$5.75B (FY2023) to $99.34B (FY2026) on the same assets (S2, S28). On the cycle-average 24.7% margin (N39) normalized EBIT is $32.88B (N38), so the stock is really 22.6x normalized EBIT at the $742.43B EV (N27), not 7.5x. Even the top of the storage-peer EV/EBITDA range (WDC 16.2x, S1) applied to normalized EBITDA gives only ~$641/share, -7.1% versus $690 (N1), while a 12x base gives ~$383 (-44.6%) and 7.0x gives ~$237 (-65.6%). With insiders net sellers of $467.6M against $7.8M of buys (S99) and no dated re-rating catalyst, this is a short: the base case is -44.6% and even the upside case is below today's price.
Key numbers
- Share price: $690.00
- Market cap: $780.68B
- Latest financial period: FY Sep 2026 to Sep 3, 2026
- Revenue (FY Sep 2026): $133.19B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Sep 2026): 6.8x
- P/E (FY Sep 2026): 9.2x
- Price / book: 5.64x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Micron sells DRAM, NAND, and NOR memory and storage into cloud/data center, mobile/client, automotive/embedded, and consumer channels, with DRAM revenue $100.68B and NAND revenue $31.79B in 2026. The FY2026 10-K reports four business units—CMBU $43.09B, CDBU $37.59B, MCBU $36.60B, and AEBU $15.89B—versus the FY2021 excerpt’s CNBU revenue of $12.28B in 2021. Scale and profitability changed sharply: FY2026 revenue was $133.19B, gross profit $107.50B, and operating income $99.34B, versus FY2021 revenue $27.70B and operating income $6.28B. The business remains capital intensive and concentrated: top ten customers were about one-half of revenue in each of the last three years, and FY2026 capex was $30.71B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Micron competes in commodity DRAM and NAND against Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia, Sandisk, CXMT and YMTC, and the 10-K points to technology and manufacturing scale as its edge — not brand, licences or switching costs; distributors carry rivals' products and many customer contracts are short-term. The six-year record is the tell: operating income went from $9.70B (FY2022) to -$5.75B (FY2023) and back to $99.34B (FY2026), so returns track memory pricing, not a franchise. The only defensible assets the filings show are leading-edge process (1γ DRAM, HBM4 made in-house) and owned fabs with shared DRAM/NAND/NOR process steps — advantages larger, government-backed competitors are also funding.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended May 28, 2026) was a record pricing-driven quarter: revenue $41.456B, up 74% QoQ and 346% YoY, gross margin 85%, and operating income $33.318B. The 10-Q shows cash/investments $30.13B, inventory $8.567B, and $7.84B repurchased under the $10B authorization through May 28, 2026. The same-quarter earnings release guides FQ4 2026 revenue to $50.0B ± $1.0B, gross margin approximately 86%, and GAAP diluted EPS $30.73 ± $1.00. Risk-factor changes are only shown in the later computed 10-K diff, not a Q3 10-Q diff.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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