QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -42% · downside -86% · upside +4%
Moderna's Q3 2026 profit and raised guidance are real, but the business is still a narrow COVID franchise whose FY2025 revenue was $1.94B versus $19.26B in FY2022, with TTM EBIT of -$2.93B and TTM FCF of -$1.97B. On the same FY2020-FY2025 normalized EBITDA base as section 13 ($2.06B), the comp EV/EBITDA range of 5.0x-49.7x gives $36.72-$263.75 per share; the base case at 26.8x is $147.45, -42.0% from $254.19, and even the highest multiple leaves only +3.8% upside. The market is capitalizing intismeran optionality and one strong quarter as if durable earnings power has returned, while the balance sheet is strong ($4.58B net cash) but operations still burn cash and pipeline setbacks (mRNA-1010 refusal-to-file, norovirus interim miss) cap the multiple. I would short; the main risk is a squeeze on the 8.1% short interest if intismeran data surprise positively.
Key numbers
- Share price: $254.19
- Market cap: $102.85B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $2.52B
- Price / book: 15.04x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Moderna is an mRNA platform company whose FY2025 revenue was $1.94B, largely from COVID vaccines Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, with mRESVIA as the third commercial product; the FY2020 10-K described a company with a COVID-19 vaccine under EUA and 24 programs, while the latest 10-K describes three commercial products and 35 programs. S24 shows the cycle: revenue was $19.26B in FY2022, $6.85B in FY2023, $3.24B in FY2024 and $1.94B in FY2025, with operating losses in FY2023-FY2025. The provided sources do not include TTM figures or segment-level revenue.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The 10-K asserts a durable advantage in mRNA technology, drug discovery, development and manufacturing, but the multi-year record shows eroding rather than durable economics: revenue fell from $19.26B in FY2022 to $1.94B in FY2025 and operating income from $9.42B to -$3.07B, with operating cash flow negative in each of FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025. What advantage exists is a technology and manufacturing head start, not switching costs, licences, brand pricing power or scale — the company has only two approved products (COVID and RSV vaccines) and is the late, smaller entrant against Pfizer, BioNTech, GSK and Sanofi. In COVID it is largely a two-player mRNA fight with Pfizer/BioNTech, and it has been locked out of many European markets by a competitor's European Commission contract until year-end 2026; in RSV its sales are described as minimal against two earlier entrants.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 total revenue was $1.313B, up 29% from $1.016B in Q3 2025, with net product sales of $1.273B; the quarter produced $130M operating income and $162M net income. The nine-month picture is still a loss: $(2.073)B from operations and $(1.963)B net loss. Cash was $8.0B at Sep 30, 2026 versus $6.9B at Jun 30, 2026, boosted mainly by $2.6B of convertible-note net proceeds, and 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to 15%-25% with year-end cash guided to $8.1-$8.3B. The 10-Q Item 1A risk-factor update says there were no material changes from the 2025 10-K other than convertible-notes risks.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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