QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
METLIFE INC (MET)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case none · downside -20% · upside +13%
The market is not missing a bargain: at $98.27 (N1) MET trades at the quoted 12.4x TTM P/E (N25) and 2.78x book (N26) on a 22.4% TTM ROE (N23), with a $61.76B market cap (N9) and $4.97B TTM net income to common (N15). Using today's multiple, the base case is today's price, 0%; 10x N15 on 628.44M shares (N5) is about $79 (-20%) and 14x is about $111 (+13%), so risk/reward is roughly 1:1 and fails the long threshold. The operating story is better than GAAP - Q3 2026 adjusted EPS $2.85 ex-notables, +22%, and $4.10B TTM buybacks plus dividends - but revenue missed, GAAP book value per share fell 22%, and there is no numeric guidance. I pass: quality is real, but the price already reflects it and the cases do not offer a deep-value edge.
Key numbers
- Share price: $98.27
- Market cap: $61.76B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $82.56B
- P/E (TTM): 12.4x
- Price / book: 2.78x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
MetLife is a global life and health insurer, annuity and employee-benefits writer and, since the Q4 2025 reorganization, an asset manager with its own reportable segment (MIM): the FY2025 10-K reports six segments (Group Benefits, RIS, Asia, Latin America, EMEA, MIM) plus Corporate & Other, versus five segments (U.S., Asia, Latin America, EMEA, MetLife Holdings) in the FY2020 10-K. Money is made on underwriting and pricing spread (mortality, morbidity, longevity, expense and persistency assumptions) plus institutional funding-agreement and pension-risk-transfer business, and fees from managing third-party and general-account assets. Between the oldest and newest report the portfolio was reshaped: U.S. P&C was put under a December 2020 sale agreement, MetLife Holdings was dissolved into Corporate & Other, and MIM was promoted to a segment with the December 30, 2025 PineBridge acquisition closing. The data table shows operating income of $6.14B in FY2025 against pre-tax income of $4.66B and net income to common of $3.17B, so FY2025 net income sits below operating earnings and the source does not itemize the difference.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The FY2025 10-K describes life insurance and institutional asset management as highly competitive and rests MetLife's positioning on a claimed trusted global brand, diversified/resilient business and leadership in attractive markets; it gives no market share or quantified moat measure. The XBRL history shows operating income stable at $5.72B-$6.14B in FY2022-FY2025, but net income to common swung from $5.10B in FY2022 to $1.38B in FY2023 and $3.17B in FY2025, so the sources support scale/brand claims more than a smooth return advantage.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a record quarter on MetLife's own adjusted measures: premiums, fees and other revenues of $14.1 billion (+12%), adjusted earnings of $1.8 billion (+12%) and adjusted EPS of $2.78 (+17%), or $2.85 excluding notable items. Reported net income of $2.4 billion was inflated by net derivative gains ($698 million pre-tax, $551 million after tax per the release), so the operating read is the adjusted line, which grew on higher variable investment income (up 49% to $720 million), volume growth in all six segments and favorable Group Benefits underwriting. The annual actuarial assumption review was a Q3 2026 charge, not a benefit, and 10-Q risk factors are unchanged from the 2025 Annual Report; no numeric forward guidance was given in either the 10-Q or the earnings release.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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