QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -51% · upside +110%
At $6.35 the market pays 3.05x TTM sales on $804.2M revenue, or $2.45B market cap; there is no normalizable earnings base, since FY2020-FY2025 operating income sums to -$1.38B and TTM EBIT is -$2.95B. My base case holds today's 3.05x P/S ($6.35, 0%), with a 1.5x downside ($3.12, -51%) and a 6.4x upside ($13.32, +110%); those non-base multiples are rerated only on the dated 2026-11-09 Q3 print, the promised at-least-one lease before year-end (S102/S5), and Long Ridge FERC closing (S103/S79), with the 2026-11-30 termination-fee risk on the downside (S30). The risk/reward is wide but the balance sheet dominates: $421.3M cash against -$1.24B TTM free cash flow and $2.90B debt means the equity can be consumed before any data-center multiple arrives. I watch, not long or short, because the base case is flat and neither the +30% long nor -30% short threshold is met.
Key numbers
- Share price: $6.35
- Market cap: $2.45B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $804.2M
- Price / book: 1.48x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
MARA has moved from a bitcoin miner that was buying ASICs against a projected 1.4 EH/s fleet (FY2020) to an owner of energy and data-center infrastructure: 18 data centers, 66.4 EH/s energized and 1,861 MW of total capacity at December 31, 2025, a 53,822 bitcoin treasury, and an early-stage AI/HPC effort that has produced no material revenue. Mining revenue is small and cyclical ($4.4M FY2020, $9.9M FY2022, $96.5M FY2024, $58.7M FY2025) while operating income swings from +$306.1M in FY2024 to -$1.22B in FY2025, and operating cash flow was negative in every year from FY2020 through FY2025. Growth and the treasury have been funded mainly with equity (diluted shares 81.41M to 355.17M) plus a bitcoin lending/pledging program that generated about $32.1M of interest income in FY2025.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show no durable competitive advantage: revenue has swung $4.4M (FY2020) to $96.5M (FY2024) back to $58.7M (FY2025), operating cash flow was negative in every one of the six fiscal years FY2020-FY2025, and the positive operating income of FY2023 ($220.9M) and FY2024 ($306.1M) was never backed by cash. Competition is on hashrate, power cost and pool scale, where the 10-K says rivals have greater resources; the AI/HPC expansion puts MARA against data-center operators and hyperscale cloud providers with 'greater scale, established customer relationships, technical expertise.' The only moat-like assets disclosed are six U.S. patents and 18 pending applications, in a sector the filing itself calls largely open source.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06) shows revenue falling 27% to $174.9 million in Q2 2026 from $238.5 million in Q2 2025, and a swing to a $611.3 million net loss from $808.2 million of net income a year earlier, driven mainly by non-cash digital-asset revaluation charges rather than by the operating cost lines, which moved modestly. Adjusted EBITDA was ($360.9) million versus $1.2 billion in Q2 2025. Liquidity fell to $421.3 million of cash ($433.3 million including restricted cash) at June 30, 2026 from $547.1 million at December 31, 2025 despite $1.63 billion of bitcoin sales, because $912.8 million of convertible notes and a $350.0 million line of credit were repaid. Neither the 10-Q nor the Q2 2026 earnings release gives numeric forward guidance; the 10-Q's Item 1A adds a Long Ridge closing risk with a $75.0 million termination fee.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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