QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ (MAR)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case -15% · downside -39% · upside 0%
The market is capitalising a cyclical fee business at 25.7x TTM EBITDA and 40.4x TTM P/E, but mid-cycle EBITDA is $4.18B, not the $4.80B TTM figure. Keeping section 13's normalized earnings base but applying MAR's own 25.7x today, the base case is ~$354/share (-15%), the trough-inclusive downside ~$253 (-39%), and the TTM-upside ~$415, roughly flat versus $416.47. The fee stream, record pipeline and buybacks are real, but they are already reflected in a price that needs TTM-level EBITDA merely to hold. That is negative skew without the -30% base case required for a short, so watch rather than short or long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $416.47
- Market cap: $107.24B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $27.42B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 25.7x
- P/E (TTM): 40.4x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Marriott is an asset-light lodging franchisor: at year-end 2025 it owned or leased less than 1% of a 9,805-property (1,779,936-room) system, collecting royalties of 4-7% of room revenue and management fees under 20-30 year agreements, plus loyalty and co-brand credit card income. Between the FY2020 and FY2025 10-Ks the system grew (7,642 properties / 1,423,044 rooms at year-end 2020) and the reporting changed from three segments to four, with a new Midscale tier and several new brands added. The cycle shows plainly in the numbers: FY2020 revenue $10.57B with operating income $84.0M and a $267.0M net loss, versus FY2025 revenue $26.19B, operating income $4.14B and net income $2.60B. Capital return has outrun book equity: $3.30B of buybacks in FY2025 left total equity at negative $3.77B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Marriott has a durable but contested brand-and-scale advantage: S25 cites an approximately 17% U.S. hotel-market share by rooms and 4% outside the U.S., with 73% of U.S. hotel rooms brand-affiliated in 2025. But S25 also describes robust competition from Hilton, IHG, Hyatt, Wyndham, Accor, Choice, Best Western, Airbnb/Vrbo and OTAs, and S26 says owner agreements can terminate prematurely. The financial history shows a sharp cycle: revenue rose from $10.57B in FY2020 to $26.19B in FY2025 and operating income from $84.0M to $4.14B, but FY2025 total equity was -$3.77B after heavy buybacks, so book-return measures are not meaningful.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q3 2026 10-Q and the matching earnings release show an operating acceleration, not a cyclical recovery story in doubt: worldwide comparable RevPAR +6.5% in Q3 2026 (ADR +4.8%, occupancy +1.1 pts), gross fee revenues $1,522 million (+14% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA $1,512 million (+12%). Reported net income was $794 million ($3.04 diluted, $3.02 adjusted) and the quarter's soft spot was owned/leased, where net revenue fell to $41 million from $70 million on renovations, the Q2 2026 hotel sale and third-party agreement costs. Cash was $463 million (including restricted) against total debt of $16.8 billion, with $3.1 billion of repurchases in the first nine months and numeric FY2026 guidance (gross fees $6,137–6,145 million, Adjusted EBITDA $6,075–6,098 million, Adjusted EPS $12.07–12.14). Item 1A states no material changes to the risk factors in the 2025 Form 10-K.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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