QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -12% · downside -16% · upside +0%
The market is capitalizing Cheniere's TTM EBITDA of $8.02B (N14), not its FY2020-FY2025 average EBITDA of $7.34B (S2): at today's 9.9x EV/EBITDA (N28), the cycle average gives EV of $72.7B, less $22.48B net debt (N24) is $50.2B of equity, or about $246/share on 204.20M shares (N5), 12% below the $277.95 price (N1), while TTM EBITDA at the same multiple gives about $279/share, essentially today's price. Operating momentum is real, with 9M 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA up 23% to $6.037B and FY2026 guidance raised (S31), but Q3 2026 adjusted EPS missed (S60) and the balance sheet still carries $22.48B of net debt against $6.55B of equity (N24, N25). This is a watch: normalized value is below the price, but the base case is not -30% and the upside case is not +25%, so the short rule is not met; a deep-value long needs a lower price or visibly higher normalized EBITDA.
Key numbers
- Share price: $277.95
- Market cap: $56.76B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $23.73B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 9.9x
- P/E (TTM): 18.7x
- Price / book: 8.66x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Cheniere is an LNG infrastructure and marketing business that monetizes liquefaction capacity mainly through long-term SPAs and IPM agreements: at Dec 31 2025 about 90% of anticipated production was contracted through the mid-2030s and executed long-term SPAs carried $290.6B of estimated revenue. FY2025 revenue was $19,976M and operating income $9,112M, but net income to Cheniere of $5,330M included a $2.3B favorable derivative fair-value swing, so operating earnings are the cleaner measure. The six-year record shows a genuine cycle—revenue $9.29B FY2020 to $33.31B FY2022 to $19.46B FY2025; operating income -$701M FY2021 to $15.49B FY2023 to $9.11B FY2025. Between the FY2020 and FY2025 reports the company moved from negative total equity to $7.92B and from building first-wave trains to operating Corpus Stage 3 Trains 1-4.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The advantage is scale plus contract structure plus licences, not brand or price: as of December 31, 2025 Cheniere called itself the largest U.S. LNG producer and second-largest LNG operator globally by production capacity, with ~90% of anticipated SPL/CCL production contracted under SPAs and IPM agreements with ~15 years weighted average remaining life. Its own 10-K says SPL, CCL and Cheniere Marketing compete with each other and with other liquefaction projects worldwide 'primarily on the basis of price per contracted volume of LNG' — so the moat is the fixed-fee, long-dated contract book and FERC/DOE authorisations, not pricing power. The record is cyclical, not steady: operating income ran -$701.0M (FY2021), $4.56B (FY2022), $15.49B (FY2023), $6.13B (FY2024), $9.11B (FY2025), while operating cash flow was far steadier at $8.42B, $5.39B and $5.54B over FY2023-FY2025.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a volume-and-price quarter: revenues $6,173M vs $4,441M in Q3 2025, income from operations $1,915M vs $1,817M, net income attributable to Cheniere $1,170M vs $1,049M, diluted EPS $5.65 vs $4.75, on 696 TBtu recognized vs 587 TBtu. The nine-month GAAP picture is distorted by non-cash derivative marks ($3.6 billion unfavorable, mostly long-term IPM agreements), which cut income from operations to $2,717M from $5,308M and net income attributable to Cheniere to $736M from $3,028M while Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA rose 23% to $6,037M. FY2026 guidance was raised to $8.75–9.25B Adjusted EBITDA and $6.05–6.55B Distributable Cash Flow, funded capital returns continued (2.8M shares / $731M bought in Q3 2026; new $0.625 quarterly dividend), and total available liquidity was $8,079M at September 30, 2026. The 10-Q states no material risk-factor changes, though the computed diff of the FY2025 10-K shows 39 new or rewritten risk paragraphs including U.S. vessel/tariff rules.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.