QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +0% · downside -10% · upside +8%
JPMorganChase is a high-quality but fairly priced financial: TTM to Sep 30 2026 it earned $64.53B net income to common (N15) on $351.33B common equity (N23) for 18.4% ROE (N24), and it trades at 13.8x P/E (N26) and 2.53x P/B (N27), a premium to BAC/WFC/PNC/GS at 11.1x-11.9x (S1). I keep section 13's TTM earnings base but use JPM's own today multiple, not a peer rerating: $64.53B x 13.8x = $890.5B / 2,655.61M shares (N5) = ~$335.3, roughly N1 $334.49; a 10% lower earnings base gives $58.08B x 13.8x = $801.5B / 2,655.61M = ~$301.8 (-9.8%), and an 8% higher base gives $69.69B x 13.8x = $961.7B / 2,655.61M = ~$362.2 (+8.3%). The market is not missing the franchise; it is paying for it, while Q3 2026 expense +12% vs revenue +8% (S31) and the buyback cut to $664M from $6.2B (S102) cap near-term upside. With cases clustered around fair value and no catalyst yet sufficient for a long or short, this is a watch: interesting, but not yet a deep-value entry.
Key numbers
- Share price: $334.49
- Market cap: $888.27B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $203.15B
- P/E (TTM): 13.8x
- Price / book: 2.53x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
JPMorganChase is a three-segment financial holding company (CCB, CIB, AWM, plus Corporate) with $4.4 trillion of assets and $362.4 billion of stockholders' equity at December 31, 2025, versus $3.4 trillion and $279.4 billion at December 31, 2020. Revenue grew from $119.95B in FY2020 to $182.45B in FY2025 and net income to common from $27.41B to $55.68B, while FY2025 pre-tax income ($72.59B) came in below FY2024 ($75.08B). The business has changed structurally: the FY2020 filing showed four reportable segments (including Commercial Banking) and the FY2025 filing shows three, branch reach widened from 38 to 48 states plus D.C., headcount rose from 255,351 in 62 countries to 318,512 in 66 countries, and capital return roughly quintupled, with buybacks of $31.59B in FY2025 versus $6.52B in FY2020. What the filings flag as unsettled is capital rules: the July 2023 U.S. Basel III proposal is unfinalized and SCB requirements stay at current levels through September 30, 2027.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show no explicit durable moat: JPMorganChase competes with a very broad set of banks, nonbank financial firms, internet-only firms and fintechs on product quality, execution, innovation, reputation and price, and the 10-K warns that less-regulated competitors can put a highly regulated firm at a disadvantage. Scale and earnings are large—FY2025 revenue $182.45B, total equity $362.44B and net income to common $55.68B—but FY2025 pre-tax income and net income to common were below FY2024, so the latest year does not show improving profitability. The provided sources do not give ROE, P/B, net interest margin or market share, so return and moat conclusions are limited to raw dollars and disclosure language.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a growth quarter on the top line: reported revenue $50,172 million versus $46,427 million in 3Q25 (+8%), net income $15,305 million ($5.57 diluted, +6% YoY) but down 28% from 2Q26's $21,155 million, with ROE 17% and ROTCE 20%. The quarter carried a $658 million net investment securities loss in Corporate ($0.18 of EPS; $498 million after tax per the CEO quote), which CEO Dimon excludes to show $15.8 billion net income and $5.75 per share. Expense grew faster than revenue in dollar terms (+12% to $27,295 million, 54% overhead ratio), credit was calmer (provision $2.7 billion, net charge-offs $2.2 billion, down $389 million), and capital return tilted toward the dividend: $4.4 billion common dividend versus only $664 million of net buybacks. The 10-Q material supplied covers subsidiary capital and liquidity, not a quarterly income discussion.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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