QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
JD.com, Inc. (JD)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -8% · upside +41%
The market is pricing JD as a near-zero-margin retailer, and at $29.11 the $40.00B cap sits against $25.22B of net cash (CN¥168.36B x 0.1498), leaving an EV of $14.78B, or 7.9x TTM EBITDA of $1.88B. I keep section 13's TTM EBITDA base but do not re-rate to peer multiples: holding 7.9x and the same $25.22B net cash, the base case is $40.07B, or 0%; a downside where operating income goes to zero and only D&A of CN¥9.75B remains gives $36.76B, or -8.1%; annualizing H1 2026 operating income (Q1 RMB3.8B + Q2 RMB4.5B) plus D&A gives $56.40B, or +41.0%. The missing piece is confirmation that the Q2 2026 profit inflection is durable: FY2025 operating income was only CN¥2.77B while net income to common was CN¥19.63B, so the 13.6x P/E is not an operating multiple, and the sources contain no Q3 2026 figures. This is a watch, not a long, because the base case is 0%, not +30%; the risk/reward is interesting but not yet underwritten by current-period operating evidence.
Key numbers
- Share price: $29.11
- Market cap: $40.00B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): CN¥1,309.09B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Dec 2025): 7.9x
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 13.6x
- Price / book: 1.19x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
JD monetizes direct online retail, a third-party marketplace and advertising, plus logistics, health, industrial and property services; FY2025 revenue was CN¥1,309.09B but operating income was only CN¥2.77B, versus CN¥38.74B in FY2024, while net income to common was CN¥19.63B, so the net line is not evidence of operating profitability. Reported scale rose from FY2020 revenue of CN¥745.80B to FY2025's CN¥1,309.09B, alongside subsidiary listings, the Dada take-private, the JD Industrials IPO, a pending JD Property listing and the CECONOMY takeover. The oldest annual report excerpt provided is regulatory, so the business-mix comparison rests on the six-year XBRL and the latest 20-F.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
JD’s claimed edge is mainly scale in fulfillment plus brand/IP, not pricing power: FY2025 revenue was CN¥1,309.09B but operating income was only CN¥2.77B, down from CN¥38.74B in FY2024. Competition is explicitly intense against Alibaba’s taobao/tmall, Suning.com and others, with brand, product selection, pricing, fulfillment and customer service as the stated battlegrounds. The margin and return history is volatile, and FY2025 pre-tax and net income to common exceeded operating income, with the XBRL table not identifying the non-operating components.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest quarterly source is JD’s Q2 2026 results release for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026; no 10-Q is in the source set. Q2 2026 revenue fell 2.9% year over year to RMB346.4 billion, but operating income turned positive at RMB4.5 billion and non-GAAP operating income was RMB5.5 billion. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB7.1 billion, and JD repurchased US$1.0 billion of shares in the six months to June 30, 2026, leaving US$1.0 billion under the program.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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