QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
IRON MOUNTAIN INC (IRM)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -24% · upside +24%
Using section 13's TTM base - EBITDA $2.64B, net debt $19.02B and 297.83M shares - today's 19.2x EV/EBITDA gives about $106/share, essentially the $106.52 close, so the market is not missing the operating recovery; it is already paying for it. The business is growing (Q3 2026 revenue +13.5%, FY2026 AFFO guide raised to $5.94-$6.00), but TTM free cash flow is -$536.8M, cash is $188.2M against $19.21B of debt and equity is -$1.39B. At the same 19.2x multiple, a 15% EBITDA decline gives about $80.8/share (-24%) and a 15% EBITDA increase gives about $131.9/share (+24%), so neither the long nor short rule is met. I would watch: the operating story is real, but the price already reflects it and the balance-sheet/cash-flow risk is not compensated.
Key numbers
- Share price: $106.52
- Market cap: $31.73B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $7.80B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 19.2x
- P/E (TTM): 69.2x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Iron Mountain is a 1951-founded physical records storage business that has been rebuilt around four legs: Global RIM (records management, data management, digital solutions, secure shredding, media/archive, consumer storage), Global Data Center, and Corporate and Other (ALM, Fine Arts). Revenue grew every year in the six-year window, from $4.15B in FY2020 to $6.90B in FY2025, and operating income grew from $934.8M to $1.16B, but pre-tax income and net income to common fell over the same span ($372.7M to $211.2M; $342.7M to $144.6M) as depreciation and amortization rose from $652.1M to $1.02B and capex from $438.3M to $2.27B. The 2020-to-2025 change is a shift of capital into data centers (15 sites/130 MW leasable in 2020 vs 31 sites/488 MW leasable in 2025) and into ALM, plus two successive restructuring programs (Project Summit, Project Matterhorn).
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources support a scaled global operator with a brand/trust claim and a multi-segment footprint, but not a quantified durable moat. FY2020-FY2025 operating income stayed positive and reached $1.16B in FY2025 on $6.90B revenue, while net income to common fell to $144.6M and total equity was -$981.0M. Competition is broad across records/information management, data centers and ALM, and the 10-K itself flags declining record/tape activity and a mix shift toward more volatile service revenue. I would call the advantage 'global scale and reputation', not proven switching costs or pricing power.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) was a record revenue quarter: $1,991M total, up 13.5% reported and 12.8% organic, with storage rental +11% and service +17%; nine-month revenue was up 17.7%. Reported net income was $129M ($0.41 diluted) versus $86M, but the year-over-year operating-income jump ($410.6M vs $308.6M) is helped by there being no restructuring charge this quarter against $47.3M in Q3 2025, and nine-month other expense carries a $69.9M non-cash loss on deferred purchase obligations. Adjusted EBITDA was $748M (37.6% margin) and AFFO $458.4M ($1.53/share), and management raised FY2026 guidance to $7,950-8,020M revenue and $1,780-1,800M AFFO while lifting the dividend 15%. Cash is thin at $188M, capex of $1,724M exceeded the $1,204M of nine-month operating cash flow, and the current debt maturity bucket jumped to $1,233M from $216M.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.