QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
INTUIT INC. (INTU)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +0% · downside -18% · upside +25%
Base is FY2026 (FY Jul 2026): 14.6x EV/EBITDA (N28) on $6.56B EBITDA (N14) gives $95.8B EV, less $4.21B net debt (N24) = $91.6B equity, / 267.24M shares (N5) = about $343, or +0.3% vs $341.50 (N1); 12x downside is about $279 (-18%) and 18x upside about $426 (+25%). The market is not missing the cash generation—9.5% FCF yield (N32) and $8.66B FCF (N18) are visible—but it is pricing a growth reset where FY2027 revenue slows to 9-10%, TurboTax to 2-3% and Mailchimp to -1-0% (S101, S5). The 12x/18x band is a catalyst-driven re-rating around today's 14.6x, not a valuation-only call: the low end reflects the FY2027 reset and TurboTax DIY share loss/pricing (S5, S76, S86), the high end the Sequence/AI product news and buyback support (S11, S61, S31). I would watch, not buy yet: the base case is roughly flat, and the bear issues could be structural rather than temporary.
Key numbers
- Share price: $341.50
- Market cap: $91.26B
- Latest financial period: FY Jul 2026 to Jul 31, 2026
- Revenue (FY Jul 2026): $21.45B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Jul 2026): 14.6x
- P/E (FY Jul 2026): 20.0x
- Price / book: 4.81x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Intuit sells subscription software, payments, capital, payroll and consumer tax preparation: in FY2026 the business reports two segments, Global Business Solutions at 60% of total revenue and Consumer at 40%, versus four segments in FY2021 (Small Business & Self-Employed 49%, Consumer 37%, Credit Karma 9%, ProConnect 5%). Revenue grew from $9.63B in FY2021 to $21.45B in FY2026, operating income from $2.50B to $5.88B and operating cash flow from $3.25B to $8.84B. The change between the two 10-Ks is portfolio consolidation (Credit Karma and ProTax folded into the two segments) and a repositioning from 'AI-driven expert platform' language in FY2021 to scaled AI agents and GenOS in FY2026, alongside a restructuring plan announced in May 2026. Consumer tax remains sharply seasonal, concentrated November through April.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show a scaled, high-cash-generating business with self-described strengths in integration, brand, breadth and support, plus a large base of tax customers who return each year. But the 10-K also describes intense and broadening competition, AI lowering barriers, free/low-cost and government tax competitors, and it does not give market share, retention, gross margin or ROIC, so the durable advantage is asserted more than proven. On the numbers, revenue and operating income rose in every fiscal year FY2021-FY2026, and FY2026 operating cash flow was $8.84B against $175M of capex.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended 2026-04-30) revenue was $8,558M, up 10%, with GAAP operating income of $4,020M, up 8%, and GAAP diluted EPS of $11.09, up 11%; the nine months to April 2026 showed revenue of $17,094M (+14%) and operating income of $5,409M (+18%). Operating expenses held at 37% of revenue, so the incremental margin came from revenue growth, while net income also picked up $46M of net gains on long-term investments in the quarter. Management raised FY2026 guidance to revenue of $21.341-$21.374B (+13-14%) and non-GAAP EPS of $23.80-$23.85, and guided Q4 GAAP EPS down to $0.73-$0.79 because of $300M of restructuring charges from a 17% workforce cut. The quarter included $1.6B of buybacks and a new $8B repurchase authorization.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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