QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
INTEL CORP (INTC)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -31% · downside -53% · upside +17%
On the FY2020-FY2025 cycle Intel averaged $16.91B EBITDA, versus $14.38B TTM, so normalized earnings power is modestly better than today but still far below the $295.26B EV. At 12x cycle EBITDA the equity is worth $38.9/share (-31%), at 8x $26.2 (-53%), and only today's own 20.5x TTM EV/EBITDA reaches $65.9 (+17%). The market is paying 17.5x cycle EBITDA for a company guiding Q4 2026 revenue down to $15-16B with GAAP EPS $0.10 and still losing money in foundry, so risk/reward is skewed short. I use lower base and downside multiples because the Q4 guide and PC slowdown justify a discount to today's multiple, not because the stock is merely expensive.
Key numbers
- Share price: $56.28
- Market cap: $299.13B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 26, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $59.89B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 20.5x
- Price / book: 2.60x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
The supplied sources do not contain the Item 1 business narrative needed to explain segments, channels, customers or unit economics; they only give page maps. The financial tables show a cyclical decline: FY2025 revenue was $52.85B, operating income -$2.21B and net income -$267.0M, versus FY2021 revenue $79.02B and operating income $19.46B. Capex exceeded operating cash flow in FY2022-FY2025, and no TTM column is provided.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The 10-K supports a product and ecosystem advantage claim around x86 and Intel Core, and says most revenue comes from CCG and DCAI. But the financial record does not show durable returns: revenue fell from $79.02B in FY2021 to $52.85B in FY2025, gross profit fell from $43.81B to $18.38B, and operating income went from $19.46B to -$2.21B. In foundry, the 10-K names TSMC as the leading-edge competitor holding a leading position at the most advanced nodes, plus Samsung and mature-node foundries.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $16.5B, up 21% YoY, with GAAP gross margin 43.0% and operating margin 15.3%; DCAI grew 78% while CCPG fell 5%. Net income attributable to Intel was $3.3B but included a $1.0B Escrowed Shares derivative gain; YTD 2026 is a $(11.4)B attributable net loss after a $12.6B derivative loss and $3.9B goodwill impairment. Q3 cash from operations was $5.1B, Q4 2026 guidance is $15.0-$16.0B revenue with GAAP EPS $0.10/non-GAAP $0.25, and client weakness is expected to worsen in Q4 2026 and persist in 2027; no buyback data are in the sources.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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