QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Honeywell Aerospace Inc. (HONA)
As of 2026-11-09 · 9/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -1% · upside +12%
Section 13 uses HON's TTM revenue, EBITDA and net income, which is the parent/other Honeywell ticker, not HONA; I therefore value HONA on its own FY2026 pro forma standalone adjusted EPS guidance of $7.85-$8.00. At $152.92, HONA trades at 19.3x the $7.925 midpoint, not obviously expensive versus aerospace peers, and the 2026-10-28 guidance raise, $19.3B backlog (+12%) and one director's $1.0m open-market buy are positives. But Q3 2026 sales grew only 2%, adjusted EBIT only 1%, supply constraints from 70 suppliers persist into 2027, and the securities class action has a 2026-11-23 lead-plaintiff deadline. My base case is roughly today's price, with limited downside at the low end of guidance and upside only if Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.21 annualizes to $8.84 at the same 19.3x multiple; the rule is not met, so watch.
Key numbers
- Share price: $152.92
- Market cap: $48.48B
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 sales were $4,644M, up 2% reported and organic, with nine-month organic growth of 5%; adjusted EBIT rose 1% to $1,161M while reported EPS of $2.29 included benefits from lower environmental and Spin-off transaction costs. Segment margins split: ES profit +11% at a 32% margin, E&PS profit -16% at 17%, and CS profit +2% at 28% flat. Nine-month operating cash flow fell to $1,014M on higher interest, transaction and Flexjet payments, but Q3 free cash flow was $500M; the $3.5B buyback is unused and FY2026 adjusted EPS and second-half FCF guidance were raised.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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