QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $19.13 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -53% · downside -53% · upside 0%
The market is still paying 1.31x TTM EV/Sales (N24) for a business with -$232.5M TTM EBIT (N10) and $8.2M FCF (N16), while the independent peer-median anchor is 0.49x (N48). At 0.49x on $2.87B TTM revenue (N8) plus $712.2M net cash (N21), equity is $2.12B or $9.06/share, -53% (N5); I do not use GDRX's 1.78x for upside because no dated event justifies a higher multiple, so at HIMS's own 1.31x the TTM business is worth today's $19.13 (0%). A 50% sales decline priced at the compressed 0.90x multiple gives $8.57/share, -55% (N8,N21,N5). The 2026-11-09 guidance cut, 57% gross margin and FTC suit attack both earnings power and the multiple, and the 25.3% float short is a squeeze risk rather than support. Short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $19.13
- Market cap: $4.47B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $2.87B
- FCF yield: 0.2%
- Price / book: 12.59x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): none flagged
- EV / FCF (TTM): 457.4x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +59.0%
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Hims & Hers sells subscription health and wellness plans, mostly prescription treatments fulfilled through its own pharmacies, and has scaled revenue from $148.8M (FY2020) to $2.35B (FY2025) and $2.87B on a TTM basis to 2026-09-30, with gross profit of $1.83B TTM. GAAP profitability flipped: operating income was $105.6M and net income $128.4M in FY2025 but operating income was -$232.5M and net income -$190.8M on the TTM to 2026-09-30, while D&A and intangible amortization stepped up sharply; the sources do not explain the swing. Operating cash flow remains positive ($300.0M FY2025, $180.1M TTM) against heavy capex ($242.6M FY2025, $171.9M TTM). Between the FY2020 and latest 10-K the model changed from third-party pharmacy fulfillment and a U.S.-only footprint to in-house 503A/GPhC/503B facilities, international operations (UK, EU, Canada) and a stated customer-pay-only reimbursement stance, with compounded GLP-1 promotion now an explicit FDA matter.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not show a durable competitive advantage: management claims a differentiated full-suite DTC/telehealth offering, but the 10-K describes fragmented DTC competition and larger telehealth rivals, and brand is the main stated asset. The margin and return record is unstable: gross profit rose to $1.83B TTM to 2026-09-30, but operating income was -$232.5M TTM after +$105.6M in FY2025, and net income was -$190.8M TTM after +$128.4M in FY2025. Operating cash flow remains positive at $180.1M TTM, but capex is heavy at $171.9M TTM, and GLP-1/compounding regulatory and DOJ-referral risks are explicit. Brand is central, but the 10-K says failure to maintain and promote it cost-effectively may harm the competitive advantage.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 10-Q shows revenue acceleration: total revenue $890.373m, up 49% y/y, with US up 21% and Rest of World up 321% (helped by Eucalyptus), while nine-month 2026 revenue rose 30%. Gross margin fell to 57% from 74%, Q3 GAAP net loss was $33.040m, Adjusted EBITDA was $82.388m (9% margin) and Free Cash Flow was $25.974m; nine-month 2026 Free Cash Flow was only $10.813m. Management guided Q4 2026 revenue to $875m-$895m and FY2026 revenue to $3.13b-$3.15b, with FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $257m-$277m. The 10-Q risk section lists AI, international expansion and government-action risks, but the provided sources contain no Q3 2026 10-Q risk-factor diff.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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