QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
HALLIBURTON CO (HAL)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -2% · downside -45% · upside +67%
HAL is priced near normalized mid-cycle value: 7.9x EV/EBITDA on FY2021-FY2025 average EBITDA of $3.95B gives about $31.29/share versus the $31.84 close, while TTM EBITDA is $4.00B and TTM FCF is $1.60B against normalized FCF of $1.71B. The market is not paying for a recovery above 7.9x, but it also is not protecting against a peer-low 5.0x outcome or the weak North America frac/FCF trend seen in Q3 2026. The 2027 target of mid-single-digit revenue growth and ~15% operating margins is a real catalyst, but it is not enough to make the base case clear the long hurdle. Watch: interesting normalized cash-flow value, not yet a long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $31.84
- Market cap: $26.34B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $22.48B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 7.9x
- P/E (TTM): 13.2x
- Price / book: 2.37x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Halliburton sells oilfield services and products through two segments, Completion and Production and Drilling and Evaluation; FY2025 revenue was $22.18B, down 3% from FY2024, and the two segments finished FY2025 at 17% and 15% operating margins. Cycle amplitude is large: revenue ran from $14.45B in FY2020 with a $2.44B operating loss to $23.02B in FY2023 with $4.08B of operating income. The geographic mix has shifted away from the US over the cycle (58% of revenue in FY2018 vs 39% in FY2025) and the segment roster itself was re-cut between the FY2020 and FY2025 10-Ks, with specialty chemicals moved into Completion and Production as Multi-Chem and a portion of that chemical business now marketed for sale in the first half of 2026. Cash generation, not net income, is the spine of the story: $2.93B operating cash flow and $1.25B capex in FY2025, capex held at about 6% of revenue, and $1.6B returned to shareholders.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
HAL has scale and geographic breadth, but no durable competitive advantage is visible in the sources: it sells into highly competitive markets with many substantial competitors, price is a stated competitive factor, no customer is over 10% of revenue, and no particular patent is material. FY2020-FY2025 results are deeply cyclical: operating income swung from -$2.44B to $4.08B and back to $2.26B, while operating cash flow stayed positive every year. That is a scale/cash-flow business, not a moat-protected compounder.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $5.7 billion, up 2% year over year but flat sequentially; Drilling and Evaluation grew 10% and international revenue grew 9%, offsetting Completion and Production down 4% and North America down 9%. Reported operating income was $624 million including a $107 million pre-tax impairments and other charges item; adjusted operating income was $731 million and adjusted operating margin was 12.8%. Cash was $1.8 billion at September 30, 2026, Q3 cash flow from operations was $368 million and free cash flow $156 million, with about $250 million of Q3 buybacks and a $0.17 per share dividend. The only numeric 2027 outlook in the sources is in the earnings release: mid-single digit revenue growth and operating margins of about 15%.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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