QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -39% · downside -63% · upside 0%
Using today's 11.7x P/E on all three cases, GS is priced on TTM/peak earnings, not cycle-average earnings: $13.09B normalized net income to common gives about $531/share (-39%), trough-cycle $7.91B gives about $321 (-63%), and even TTM $21.31B gives about $864, roughly flat. The market is capitalizing a 19.3% TTM ROE at 2.27x book while the six-year normalized ROE is about 11.9%, and the non-valuation catalysts point the same way: Q3 2026 investment-banking backlog decreased versus 2Q26 and end-2025, and Platform Solutions is still being dragged by Apple Card marks and the exit transition. Capital return is real and large, but buying back stock at an average $1,048.73 in Q3 2026 does not make the current price cheap on normalized earnings. This is a short, with the main risk being that the current 20.7% 9M26 ROE proves to be a new normal rather than a cycle peak.
Key numbers
- Share price: $865.82
- Market cap: $249.73B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $69.70B
- P/E (TTM): 11.7x
- Price / book: 2.27x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Goldman Sachs is a bank holding company earning fees and spread revenue across three FY2025 segments — Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management and Platform Solutions — a consolidation of the four segments it reported in FY2020 (Investment Banking, Global Markets, Asset Management, Consumer & Wealth Management). Revenue and net income to common are cyclical: revenue went $44.56B (FY2020) → $59.34B (FY2021) → $47.37B (FY2022) → $46.25B (FY2023) → $53.51B (FY2024) → $58.28B (FY2025), with net income to common of $8.91B, $21.15B, $10.76B, $7.91B, $13.53B and $16.30B over the same years. The business has been reshaped by narrowing consumer activities: Platform Solutions is now substantially the Apple Card, which the firm agreed in December 2025 to transition to another issuer over approximately 24 months, after selling the GM card program during 2025.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show no durable competitive advantage: Goldman itself describes the industry as "intensely competitive", competing on price, execution and creditworthiness, and admits to pricing credit below the risk taken to win assignments. Returns swing with the cycle rather than compound: pre-tax margin ran from 23.2% (FY2023) to 45.6% (FY2021) and revenue fell 20.2% in FY2022 with pre-tax income halving. What the record does show is scale in capital and franchise breadth (equity $124.97B, buybacks $12.36B in FY2025), not a moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 net revenues were $18.68 billion, up 23% from Q3 2025 but down 8% from Q2 2026; net earnings were $5.29 billion and diluted EPS was $17.01. Nine-month 2026 net revenues were $56.24 billion, up 25%, with diluted EPS of $55.56. Growth was led by Global Banking & Markets, especially Equities, while Platform Solutions was hit by Apple Card-related net markdowns; expenses rose 20% YoY but the efficiency ratio improved. Q3 capital return was $4.49 billion and CET1 was 12.4% standardized; no quarterly numeric guidance was given, only through-the-cycle ROE/ROTE targets.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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