QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC (GPN)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -10% · downside -61% · upside -10%
The market is paying GPN's own 11.4x EV/EBITDA for a company whose TTM net income is -$1.29B and TTM free cash flow is -$169.0M, with $16.97B of net debt against $3.75B of EBITDA and shareholder returns ($1.24B buybacks + $259.8M dividends) not covered by free cash flow. The reported CD&R/GTCR ~$40B LBO interest (2026-11-03) and the Q3 2026 beat with the Worldpay synergy target raised to $650M (2026-11-05) are real dated catalysts, but they are already in the price after a 13% one-day surge and a 21.2% one-month move, and the sources contain no EBITDA growth forecast to justify a multiple above peers. On today's multiple the base case is the current price, the downside at FIS's 7.2x is -61%, and even JPM's 10.7x peer high is -10%, so the risk/reward is skewed down and the long rule (base +30% with downside no worse than -25%) is not met. This is a watch: a genuine re-rating catalyst exists, but the price already reflects it and the earnings base does not support it.
Key numbers
- Share price: $97.40
- Market cap: $25.78B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $11.49B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 11.4x
- Price / book: 1.11x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
GPN is a payments technology company whose current Merchant Solutions segment earns mostly transaction-based fees plus software/subscription and value-added fees; the 10-K's $100 card example has a 2% merchant discount, $1.50 interchange and $0.50 retained fee. The oldest annual report here had three reportable segments (Merchant, Issuer, Business and Consumer), while the latest says Issuer Solutions is discontinued and that reportable segments will be revised in Q1 2026 after the January 2026 Worldpay acquisition and Issuer Solutions sale to FIS. FY2025 revenue was $7.71B, operating income $1.75B, net income $1.40B, operating cash flow $2.66B and capex $617.8M.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not evidence a durable advantage. The 10-K describes a highly fragmented market where some competitors have greater financial, sales and marketing resources and where falling barriers let new entrants in, and the risk-factor diff shows enterprise merchants hold non-exclusive contracts and can redirect volume to another processor at any time. The financial record shows real scale (FY2025 revenue $7.71B, operating income $1.75B, operating cash flow $2.66B) but a chunk of it is acquisition-built: amortization of intangibles was $996.5M in FY2025 and goodwill plus intangibles were about 40% of total assets at 2025-12-31. Licences (PI licences in six EU countries plus the UK) and an IP portfolio exist, but the filing frames them as permission to operate and protection, not as pricing power.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 showed reported revenue growth from the larger combined company and more than 4% normalized adjusted net revenue growth; adjusted operating margin expanded 220 bps on a normalized basis to 42.5%, and adjusted EPS rose 10% to $3.58. GAAP results were distorted by discontinued operations and prior-year disposition gains, so the GAAP net figures are not clean operating earnings. FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed with adjusted EPS of $13.60-$13.80. The provided 10-Q MD&A and Item 1A excerpts do not give balance-sheet cash, buyback-specific amounts, same-store sales or risk-factor change text.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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