QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
GLOBUS MEDICAL INC (GMED)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $75.23 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: LONG
Conviction medium · base case +70% · downside -24% · upside +88%
SECULAR mode: I value GMED on TTM to Sep 30 2026, not a cycle average. The market is treating the 2026-11-05 Q3 revenue miss and FY2026 revenue cut to $3.09B as permanent, but the same release reaffirmed FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of $4.95-$5.05 and authorized a $500M buyback increase, while TTM FCF is $766.5M (N18) and net cash is $516.8M (N23). At 18.1x P/E (N30) and 10.0x EV/EBITDA (N27), GMED is at a deep discount to the 30.85x peer median P/E (N55); the code's independent anchor gives a base of $128.22, +70.4% on TTM net income of $557.6M (N15). A 10% decline in TTM earnings to ~$501.8M at a 15.4x compressed P/E (15% below N30) gives ~$57.5, or -23.6%, so the downside stays within the -25% long limit. The dated catalysts are the 2026-11-05 buyback/EPS guide and the 2027 SCRIPT/EIQ/HFX Elite cadence against easier Nevro comps; the crowded short (7.0% of shares out, N34) can amplify a re-rating, so this is a long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $75.23
- Market cap: $10.10B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $3.14B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 10.0x
- P/E (TTM): 18.1x
- FCF yield: 7.6%
- Price / book: 2.11x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): none flagged
- EV / FCF (TTM): 12.5x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +16.7%
- ROIC (TTM): 12.4%
- WACC: 6.9%
- Economic profit spread: +5.4 pts
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
GMED is a one-reportable-segment musculoskeletal device company that sells implants, biologics, instruments, spinal cord stimulation/neuromonitoring, and imaging-navigation-robotics capital equipment through direct reps and exclusive distributors, mainly in the U.S. The FY2025 10-K shows a larger, more international, acquisition-built business than the FY2020 10-K: NuVasive (2023) and Nevro (2025) added spine scale and SCS, and international was 19.4% of sales in the year ended December 31, 2025 versus 15.8% in the year ended December 31, 2020. S24 shows FY2025 revenue of $2.94B and operating cash flow of $753.4M, with TTM to 2026-09-30 revenue of $3.14B and operating cash flow of $925.9M.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Globus claims several advantages — an integrated product-development engine, expanded in-house manufacturing, an exclusive sales force with reps in the OR, and a differentiated portfolio (9 launches in 2025) — but the sources give no share, pricing or switching-cost data to test them. The financials show real scale and cash: revenue $1.57B FY2023 to $2.94B FY2025 to $3.14B TTM to 2026-09-30, operating income $133.1M to $479.8M to $679.7M, and operating cash flow of $925.9M TTM against $159.4M capex. The advantage is contested: the 10-K names five large orthopaedic competitors plus a second tier, and concedes rivals may out-patent or out-clear it. Reported returns are understated by amortization of intangibles ($118.0M TTM) and lifted in FY2025 by a non-operating item not identified in these sources.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 sales were $763.7m, down 0.7% y/y, with U.S. +0.5% and international -5.7%; nine-month sales rose 9.5% to $2.313b. Gross margin expanded on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, and operating income rose to $177.6m, while prior-year one-offs complicate net-income comparisons. FY2026 revenue guidance was cut to $3.09b from $3.18-$3.22b, but non-GAAP EPS guidance was reaffirmed; the board added $500m to the buyback. Nine-month operating cash flow was $677.3m, inventories rose to $824.1m and cash and equivalents fell to $441.3m.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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