QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CORNING INC /NY (GLW)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -18% · downside -54% · upside +22%
On the cycle, Corning is not cheap enough: FY2020-FY2025 average margins on TTM revenue $17.72B give normalized EBITDA $3.70B, and at today's 22.1x EV/EBITDA that is EV $81.8B, less $6.833B net debt plus leases = $75.0B equity, or $87.0/share, -18.0% vs $106.13. The downside case at 13.3x gives $49.2 (-53.6%) and the upside at 32.0x gives $129.5 (+22.0%), so the rule is neither long nor short. The business is executing (Q3 2026 core sales +19%, core EPS +36%, Optical +44%) and Q4 guidance is numeric, but the price already discounts TTM EBITDA of $4.41B, 26.3x normalized EBITDA, rather than the cycle. I would watch, not own, until either the normalized base rises toward $4.4B with cited evidence or the equity approaches the $87 base with the operating catalysts intact.
Key numbers
- Share price: $106.13
- Market cap: $91.42B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $17.72B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 22.1x
- P/E (TTM): 42.5x
- Price / book: 6.69x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Corning sells glass, ceramic and optical products through five reportable segments; FY2025 segment net sales mix was Optical Communications 38%, Display 23%, Specialty Materials 13%, Automotive 11%, Life Sciences 6%, with Hemlock and Emerging Growth Businesses at 9%. The top line is cyclical: revenue $14.19B (FY2022), $12.59B (FY2023), $13.12B (FY2024), $15.63B (FY2025), and operating income $1.44B, $890.0M, $1.14B and $2.28B in the same four years. Between the FY2020 and FY2025 annual reports the portfolio was re-cut (Automotive Glass Solutions folded into Environmental Technologies to form "Automotive"; Display Technologies renamed "Display") and the mix shifted toward optical/data-center demand. Cash generation has been steadier than net income — operating cash flow $1.94B in FY2024 and $2.69B in FY2025 against depreciation of $1.23B and $1.24B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Corning's advantage reads as scale, process know-how and patents rather than price: it calls itself the largest worldwide producer of display glass substrates (10-K filed 2026-02-12) and claims cost advantages in Optical Communications from its fiber process, scale and IP, but it names larger or broader competitors in every segment and states there is no assurance it can hold its position. The cycle supports a real but not pricing-proof advantage: gross profit ran about 31-36% of revenue and operating income $509.0M to $2.28B over FY2020-FY2025, yet a -11% revenue drop from $14.19B (FY2022) to $12.59B (FY2023) cut operating income from $1.44B to $890.0M. Cash generation is steadier than reported earnings (operating cash flow $2.00B-$2.69B every year FY2022-FY2025), but 2-3 customers per segment take 28%-61% of segment sales, so the advantage is shared with buyers.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 sales grew 18% GAAP to $4,855M and 19% core to $5,081M, led by Optical Communications +44% on Gen AI demand. Core gross margin expanded 150 bp to 40.5% and core EPS rose 36% to $0.91; GAAP EPS was $0.78 and included a $106M net translated-earnings contract gain. Q4 2026 guidance is numeric: core sales $5.2–$5.3B (+~19% YoY) and core EPS $0.96–$1.00 (+~36%). Solar sales rose 37% but posted a $(7)M segment net loss as the ramp lagged, while Glass Innovations fell 3% on memory-price pressure.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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