QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL)
As of 2026-11-10 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -27% · upside +19%
Section 13's base is FY2025 (year ended 2025-12-31), which is ten months stale and pre-dates the SECURE close, so I re-based all three cases on the FY2026 guidance given on 28 Oct 2026 (revenue C$8,055-8,075M, Adjusted EBITDA C$2,490-2,495M, Adjusted FCF ~C$1,020M) and on the 30 Sep 2026 balance sheet (debt C$11,671.4M, cash C$296.5M). On that base the shares at $45.88 carry an EV of about C$40.8B, or 16.4x the guidance Adjusted EBITDA midpoint and 5.06x the revenue midpoint — inside the CLH 13.2x to CWST 19.9x peer band but above WM's 15.1x even though GFL carries net debt of roughly 4.6x that same EBITDA. The operating story is real (Q3 2026 organic growth 7.4%, Adjusted EBITDA +26.8%, guidance raised three times in 2026, Adjusted FCF ~C$1,020M guided), but the IFRS result is a C$409.8M nine-month loss the releases do not reconcile to the positive adjusted figures, and the growth is bought with 75.1M new shares rather than earned. Base case is roughly today's price (0%) at today's 16.4x, downside -27% at CLH's 13.2x and upside +19% at WCN's 18.6x: a fair-to-full price with an unfavourable skew, so a watch rather than a long or a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $45.88
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): C$6.62B
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
GFL is an Ontario-incorporated, CAD-reporting waste and environmental-services consolidator: it was founded in 2007 by Patrick Dovigi, recapitalized in 2018 by BC Partners/Ontario Teachers/the Dovigi Group, and IPO'd on the NYSE and TSX in March 2020. In FY2020 it generated C$4.20B of revenue split 87.8% solid waste, 10.9% liquid waste and 12.8% infrastructure and soil remediation (before 11.5% intercompany eliminations), and 52% U.S. / 48% Canada. Revenue then ran C$5.14B (FY2021) to C$7.52B (FY2023), fell to C$6.14B (FY2024) and recovered to C$6.62B (FY2025), with operating cash flow of C$1.32B in FY2025 versus C$1.54B in FY2024. FY2025 reported net income of C$3.83B is far above FY2025 pre-tax income of C$226.9M and is therefore not an operating result; the FY2025 AIF excerpt supplied contains no FY2025 segment or geographic breakdown, so all mix data here is FY2020.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
On the sources, GFL has scale and some hard-to-replicate assets (permits, disposal capacity, fleet) but no demonstrated durable pricing advantage: the North American environmental services industry is highly fragmented and competition is primarily price and service, with municipal contracts periodically bid and municipal operators enjoying flow-control and tax advantages. FY2025 revenue was C$6.62B, pre-tax income C$226.9M and operating cash flow C$1.32B; pre-tax income was negative in four of six years, and FY2025 net income of C$3.83B is above pre-tax income, so it is not operating profitability. The sources do not name specific competitors or give segment margins or ROIC.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (three months ended Sep 30, 2026) revenue was CAD 2,155.3 million, +27.2% y/y, with 18.7% from acquisitions but 7.4% organic growth; Adjusted EBITDA was $678.7 million, +26.8%, and margin was 31.5% vs 31.6% with 115 bps underlying expansion. Reported net loss from continuing operations was CAD 28.0 million vs CAD 90.4 million income a year ago, but Adjusted Net Income from continuing operations was $100.1 million and Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $272.5 million. FY2026 guidance was raised for the third time to revenue of $8,055-$8,075 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $2,490-$2,495 million. No shares were repurchased in Q3 2026, and a Special Committee is reviewing unsolicited take-private proposals.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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