QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -23% · upside +24%
The market is not missing the backlog; it is already capitalizing it at 44.9x TTM EV/EBITDA (N25) and 67.5x TTM EV/EBIT (N26), while the 19.8x P/E (N28) is flattered by TTM net income of $10.37B (N12) that is $7.54B above TTM EBIT of $2.83B (N9). Base case: 44.9x x $4.26B TTM EBITDA (N11) = $191.3B EV; + $13.94B net cash (N21) = $205.2B equity; / 264.68M shares (N4) = $775/share, roughly today's $774.11 (N1). Downside: EBITDA down 25% to $3.20B at the same 44.9x gives $143.5B EV, $157.4B equity, $595/share (-23.2%). Upside: EBITDA up 25% to $5.33B at the same 44.9x gives $239.1B EV, $253.0B equity, $956/share (+23.5%). I would watch: FY2026 guidance and backlog are real catalysts (S94), but at today's operating multiple there is no deep-value margin of safety and Wind still loses money (S30).
Key numbers
- Share price: $774.11
- Market cap: $204.89B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $44.04B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 44.9x
- P/E (TTM): 19.8x
- Price / book: 18.00x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
GEV is three equipment-plus-service segments - Power, Wind and Electrification - pulled out of General Electric on April 2, 2024, selling into an electric power market where its installed base generates about 25% of the world's electricity. Revenue rose from $29.65B (FY2022) to $34.94B (FY2024) and $38.07B (FY2025), with operating income swinging from -$2.88B (FY2022) to $471.0M (FY2024) and $1.39B (FY2025). The growth engine is Power backlog and long-cycle service contracts: RPO went from ~$73.4B at Dec 31, 2024 to ~$94.4B at Dec 31, 2025, with ~1,800 gas turbines under long-term service agreements averaging ~10 years remaining. The FY2024-to-FY2025 10-K filings show the portfolio being narrowed toward workhorse products (75% of equipment RPO vs 70%) while Offshore Wind stays the problem child, hit by the Dec 22, 2025 U.S. lease pause.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
Sources show real scale and an improving operating record—FY2025 revenue $38.07B, gross profit $7.54B, operating income $1.39B and operating cash flow $4.99B—but they do not document a durable competitive advantage. The 10-K describes highly competitive markets with pressure on technology, quality, delivery and price, and flags manufacturers from regions such as China and government-sponsored competitors. Long-term service agreements may create some customer stickiness, but the same filing frames service execution, quality/warranty and sole-sourced inputs as major risks.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 10-Q shows revenue of $12.6B, +27% (+18% organic), RPO of $196.7B, gross margin of 24.6%, and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.9B/15.4%. Q3 operating income was $1.4B and net income $1.3B; the much larger nine-month net income of $6.7B includes a $4.0B pre-tax Prolec GE gain and a $0.4B pre-tax Proficy gain. Cash and free cash flow were strong, the buyback authorization was raised to $20B, and 2026 guidance was raised. The 10-Q risk-factor section only points back to the FY2025 10-K risks, with no separate updated list.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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