QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -44% · upside +12%
GE's Q3 2026 orders (+49%) and the second 2026 guidance raise point to real demand, but the stock already discounts it: at $323.24 it trades at 29.8x TTM EV/EBITDA and 36.7x TTM P/E with a 2.4% FCF yield, while TTM pre-tax income of $10.65B is far above the FY2020-FY2025 simple average of $4.98B. I keep section 13's base - $11.55B TTM EBITDA at today's 29.8x - which values the shares at about $322.9, so the base case is flat; the 17.0x downside is $179.8 (-44%) and the 33.4x upside is $363.1 (+12%). The normalized flag is false because the cases are not averaged over the cycle, but the normalization risk is exactly why I will not pay this multiple. The call is watch: not a long because there is no margin of safety, not a short because the base case at today's multiple is not -30% and the upside is only +12%.
Key numbers
- Share price: $323.24
- Market cap: $334.02B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $52.58B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 29.8x
- P/E (TTM): 36.7x
- Price / book: 19.06x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
The only source is six years of 10-K XBRL facts, so this section can chart GE's financial shape — revenue of $75.83B in FY2020 falling to $29.14B in FY2022 and $45.85B in FY2025, a $6.57B net loss to common in FY2021, then $8.70B of net income to common and $8.54B of operating cash flow in FY2025 — but not how the company makes money. No segment, channel, unit-economics, product or management-discussion text is in the source set, and operating income is blank for all six years. The biggest visible changes across the window are the FY2021-to-FY2022 revenue drop and the later step-up in buybacks to $7.55B in FY2025 alongside a smaller cash and equity base.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The source set contains no evidence on brand, cost, network, switching costs, scale, licenses, or named competitors, so a durable competitive advantage cannot be established from it. The financial record shows a cyclical business: revenue and pre-tax income swung sharply across FY2020-FY2025, and net income to common was negative in FY2021 and only $48.0M in FY2022. The one resilient feature in the data is operating cash flow, which was positive in every fiscal year shown, including FY2021 when net income to common was -$6.57B.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $14.118B, +16% y/y, with total orders $19.0B, +49%; nine-month revenue was $39.859B, +20%. GAAP Q3 profit margin fell 80 bps to 19.9% while operating margin rose 220 bps to 22.5%; Q3 insurance swung to a $(210)M loss and equity gains were $117M, so operating profit is the cleaner read. FY2026 guidance was raised to adjusted revenue growth ~19-20%, operating profit $10.9-$11.0B, adjusted EPS $8.00-$8.10 and FCF $9.1-$9.4B. The sources give no TTM, same-store/comparable-sales metric or risk-factor diff.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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