QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Liberty Media Corp (FWONK)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $108.94 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -54% · downside -56% · upside +11%
The price already discounts a flawless calendar: $31.95B of EV (N19) is 30.5x TTM GAAP EBITDA of $1.05B (N21, N11) and 53.7x EBIT (N22), top of a peer table whose next-best names trade at 9.6x-12.8x (S1), so the base case strikes at the 23.9x peer-median P/E, $50.56 or -54% (N51). The upside arithmetic is thin: 10% more EBITDA ($1.155B) at the company's own 30.5x, less $3.19B of net debt (N17), gives $121/share, +11%, while a 30% EBITDA decline at a compressed ~20x gives $44, -59% - so even a good 2027 calendar does not pay for the multiple. This is not a normalization call: $3.27B of acquisitions to 2025-12-31 (N29) mean pre-deal years (FY2021 revenue $11.40B, S28) describe a different company, so the base is the fully post-deal TTM to Sep 30 2026, where the $558M of net income is flattered by $159M of investment gains and $203M of discontinued operations (N30) and clean adjusted net income is only $196M (N31), an adjusted P/E of 146.7x (N32) beside the 51.5x GAAP (N24). The operating tape does not support the multiple: nine-month 2026 revenue is flat at $2,871M and Adjusted OIBDA $740M vs $739M (S29), MotoGP's Q3 2026 Adjusted OIBDA fell 47% (S31), ROIC of 3.6% sits below a 6.3% WACC (N37, N38), and the insider record is supply only - zero open-market buys and 763,132 shares sold for $73.0M (S99); short with base -54%, downside -59%, upside +11%.
Key numbers
- Share price: $108.94
- Market cap: $28.76B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $4.48B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 30.5x
- P/E (TTM): 51.5x
- Price / book: 3.71x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): Investment gains/losses $159.0M (28% of net income); Discontinued operations $203.0M (36% of net income)
- P/E, adjusted (TTM): 146.7x
- P/E, operating (tax-normalized) (TTM): 72.8x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +22.7%
- ROIC (TTM): 3.6%
- WACC: 6.3%
- Economic profit spread: -2.7 pts
- EV / EBITDA sanity: outside the sector range
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Liberty is now a pure motorsport rights holder: after the Braves (July 2023), Liberty Sirius XM (September 2024) and Liberty Live (December 15, 2025) split-offs, its only businesses are Formula 1 and MotoGP, and Liberty Formula One common stock is no longer a tracking stock. Formula 1 earns from media rights (31.3% of F1 revenue in FY2025), race promotion (26.7%) and sponsorship (21.7%), with 24 events in 21 countries in 2025; MotoGP from media rights (41.2%), race promotion (33.7%) and sponsorship (12.7%), with 22 events in 18 countries. The reported series is not one company: revenue of $9.36B in FY2020 and $11.40B in FY2021 covers a group that still consolidated Sirius XM and the Braves, versus $3.16B in FY2022 and $4.48B in FY2025, so only the post-deal years (FY2022 onward, operating income $145.0M to $595.0M TTM) describe today's business.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not show a durable moat: the FY2025 10-K describes F1 and MotoGP as competing for attention, attendance, advertising and media rights with many alternative entertainment and sports options, not as an exclusive or pricing-power franchise. FY2025 operating income was $577.0M on $4.48B revenue, with TTM to 2026-09-30 at $595.0M on $4.48B revenue, while FY2021-FY2024 operating income swung from $1.98B to $145.0M to $287.0M. Net income is not a clean operating read, and the MotoGP acquisition carries integration and pro forma risks.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was an event-count quarter: consolidated revenue rose to $1,226M from $1,085M and Adjusted OIBDA (company non-GAAP: operating income plus D&A, stock comp, acquisition, restructuring and Concorde items) to $353M from $297M, but the nine months to Sep 2026 were flat at $2,871M of revenue and $740M vs $739M of Adjusted OIBDA. F1 carried the quarter ($338M Adjusted OIBDA, +44%, on 7 races vs 6); MotoGP fell (revenue $111M, -34%; Adjusted OIBDA $35M, -47% on a pro forma basis). Cash was $1,758M at Sep 30, 2026 against $1,055M of nine-month operating cash flow, with $690M of new 2.375% converts issued; no numeric guidance and no repurchase dollar amounts appear in the 10-Q or the Q3 2026 earnings release.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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