QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW (FUN)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -2% · downside -100% · upside +149%
The market is pricing FUN at 1.94x TTM EV/Sales and 0.35x P/S, with net debt $4.64B equal to 82% of the $5.66B EV, so at today's multiple the equity is only about $9.83/share (-1.7%). The base case uses that multiple; the downside uses 1.35x because the dated Oct 12, 2026 fatal coaster accident and Nov 3, 2026 investigation news justify a lower multiple, and at 1.35x EV of $3.93B is below net debt, making the common worth zero (-100%). The upside uses a rerated 2.47x, supported by the Nov 5, 2026 Q3 release showing nine-month same-park Adjusted EBITDA +10.7% and operating cash flow +36.5% and by the Apr 6, 2026 EPR sale/debt paydown; that gives EV $7.19B, equity $2.55B and about $24.9/share (+149%). The asymmetry is real but debt-dominated, so the stock is a watch: not a long because base is not +30%, not a short because upside is +149%.
Key numbers
- Share price: $10.00
- Market cap: $1.02B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 27, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $2.91B
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
The latest 10-K shows a large regional amusement-park operator with 26 amusement parks, 15 separately gated water parks and nine resort properties, earning from admissions, in-park food/merchandise/games, accommodations and other sources; attendance and revenue are heavily seasonal, with about 70% in Q2/Q3 2025. Between the FY2024 and FY2025 10-Ks the park count fell by one amusement park after the Bowie, Maryland property closed following the 2025 season, while full-time headcount fell about 15% to 4,225 as of Dec. 31, 2025. The XBRL table shows FY2025 revenue of $3.10B but operating income of -$1.38B and net income to common of -$1.60B, alongside positive operating cash flow of $327.5M and capex of $479.7M.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The scale and brand pieces are real — $3.10B FY2025 revenue after the Mergers closed July 1, 2024, exclusive U.S./Canada/Mexico theme park rights to Warner Bros./DC characters, exclusive U.S./Canada Peanuts rights, and a multi-year, capital-and-zoning barrier to building a comparable regional park. But the return history does not show a durable advantage: operating income fell from $519.9M in FY2022 to $310.5M in FY2024 and FY2025 posted a -$1.38B operating loss in a year that included Q3 2025 goodwill impairment charges, with total equity dropping from $2.04B (FY2024) to $549.8M (FY2025). It is a high-fixed-cost, highly seasonal discretionary-spend operator competing with movies, restaurants, sporting events and vacation travel, and FY2025 capex of $479.7M exceeded FY2025 operating cash flow of $327.5M.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 27, 2026) was a tale of two bases: reported revenue fell 11.0% to $1.17 billion because eight parks are gone, but same-park revenue rose 1.4% and same-park Adjusted EBITDA rose 1.1% to $493.2 million on flat attendance and 1.3% higher per capita spending. The reported net loss of $366.1 million ($3.59 per diluted share) is driven by $687.7 million of non-cash impairment charges, not by operations. Liquidity is $1.06 billion with no revolver borrowings, debt is down $275.0 million from December 31, 2025, and the active pass base is up 7.1% to 7.1 million on a same-park basis. The 10-Q Outlook gives no numeric targets; the only numeric guidance in the release is 2026 capital expenditures of $350.0 million to $375.0 million.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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