QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -56% · upside +41%
The market is paying 10.02x EV/Sales, or $2.87B EV on $287.0M TTM revenue, for a business with EBIT -$338.7M and FCF -$326.5M; the $600.6M net-cash cushion is real but equals about 1.9 years of TTM burn. The dated positives — the $1.3B AST SpaceMobile engine agreement on 2026-11-09 and NASA CLPS 2 vendor selection on 2026-11-07 — justify testing a 15x rerated upside, but estimates were unchanged and the 2026-11-10 Q3 print plus margin-compression and fiduciary-investigation overhangs are near-term de-rating risks. At $20.76, base at today's 10.02x is ~$20.76 (0%), downside at 3.17x peer EV/Sales is ~$9.02 (-56.5%), and upside at 15x is ~$29.30 (+41.2%). That is not a long and does not meet the short rule because the base case at today's own multiple is flat, so the call is watch.
Key numbers
- Share price: $20.76
- Market cap: $3.48B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $287.0M
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Firefly is a space and defense technology company with two reported platform families: Launch (Alpha operational; Eclipse in development) and Spacecraft Solutions (Blue Ghost, Elytra, and SciTec software/sensing). It sells mission solutions to national security, government and commercial customers through contracts and multi-launch agreements. FY2023-FY2025 XBRL shows revenue of $55.2M, $60.8M and $159.9M, but operating losses widened from $131.9M to $260.7M and operating cash flow was -$204.9M in FY2025. The latest 10-K records the Aug. 8, 2025 IPO and Oct. 31, 2025 SciTec acquisition; FY2025 cash was $793.0M.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Firefly's claimed advantages are only management's own assertion — the 10-K says it competes favorably on flight heritage, schedule, customization, performance, price and customer experience, but names no peers, no share and no win rates. The only concrete moat assets disclosed are five granted U.S. patents on its tap-off cycle liquid rocket engines, expiring 2039, plus export-control/regulatory barriers. The financial record does not corroborate any cost, scale or pricing advantage: gross profit moved from $26.6M (FY2023) to -$11.4M (FY2024) to $30.7M (FY2025) on revenue of $55.2M to $60.8M to $159.9M, with operating income and operating cash flow negative and worsening every year through FY2025. Customer concentration (top five >86% of FY2025 revenue) and termination-for-convenience rights run against switching costs.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest supplied 10-Q (Q2 2026, quarter ended 2026-06-30) shows revenue of $117.7 million, up 657% year over year, and gross profit of $23.9 million, but operating and net losses widened to $95.2 million and $92.3 million. Backlog was $1.47 billion at June 30, 2026, and the Q2 2026 earnings release guides 2026 full-year revenue to $420-$450 million. The 10-Q reports no material risk-factor changes; the release also cites $181.6 million of net offering proceeds, while inventory, total cash balance, and buybacks are not in the supplied sources.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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