QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -13% · upside +46%
At the 2026-11-06 close of $81.70 (N1), Flutter trades at 1.44x EV/Sales TTM (N26) and an 8.7% FCF yield (N29) on TTM to Sep 30, 2026 free cash flow of $1.24B (N18); holding that FCF flat, a 10% yield gives $1.24B/0.10 = $12.4B equity / 173.87M shares = $71 (-13%), today's 8.7% yield gives about $82 (0%), and a 6% yield gives $1.24B/0.06 = $20.7B / 173.87M = $119 (+46%) (N4). The GAAP losses (TTM EBIT -$998.0M and net income to common -$926.0M; N11, N14) are not the cash story because FY2025 D&A included $1.39B of intangible amortization and Q3 2026 had an $873M non-cash Brazil impairment (S2, S28). The market is pricing a leveraged, guidance-cut, paused-buyback story; the cash flow supports a watch rather than a long until the base case clears +30% and leverage/guidance stop worsening. Verdict watch.
Key numbers
- Share price: $81.70
- Market cap: $14.21B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $17.24B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 37.7x
- Price / book: 1.79x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Flutter makes money mainly online: FY2025 revenue was $16,383 million with 15.9 million AMPs, 88% of revenue online, and 1,127 retail shops; product mix was 53% sportsbook, 44% iGaming and 3% other. FY2025 reported two segments, U.S. ($6,967 million, 43%) and International ($9,416 million, 57%), after a Q1 2025 segment reset. The XBRL series shows revenue of $9.46B in FY2022 and $16.38B in FY2025, but operating income swung from -$549.0M in FY2023 to $869.0M in FY2024 and $36.0M in FY2025, while net income to common was -$310.0M in FY2025 despite $1.18B operating cash flow. In FY2025 Flutter bought the remaining 5% FanDuel NCI, 56% of NSX and 100% of Snai, and it launched FanDuel Predicts in December 2025.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
Flutter has real scale advantages: it calls itself the world's leading online betting/iGaming operator by revenue ($16,383M in FY2025, 15.9M AMPs), with an approximately 41% online sportsbook share in the US states where FanDuel was live, and cash generation is strong ($1.18B FY2025 operating cash flow on $105M capex). The margin and return record does not show the pricing power that scale should buy: gross margin drifted from roughly 49% (FY2022) to about 45% (FY2025, my arithmetic), FY2025 operating income was only $36.0M and net income to common was -$310.0M against $9.04B of total equity. Access is licence-dependent and partly rented through partners' skins, and the FY2025 10-K's newly-written risk factor names prediction markets, illegal operators and new entrants as competitive pressures. Verdict: a scale-and-brand advantage that is narrow and regulatory-conditional, not a demonstrated high-return moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose 2% to $3,874m, but the quarter was a loss: operating loss $(1,191)m and net loss $(1,148)m, driven by a $873m non-cash Brazil impairment (of which $541m goodwill) and a $105m legal provision, not by the underlying trading line, which showed Group adjusted EBITDA of $360m (-25%) per the release. U.S. revenue grew 6% to $1,455m while U.S. adjusted EBITDA fell to $3m, and International revenue was flat at $2,419m with adjusted EBITDA $435m (-14%) on the UK gaming tax increase. FY2026 guidance was cut numerically: revenue midpoint down $300m to $17.61bn and adjusted EBITDA down $160m to $2.495bn; buybacks are paused, leverage is 4.6x (from 3.7x at December 2025), and the refinancing extends RCF and Term Loan A maturities to 2032.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 10. Earnings-call notes
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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