QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
FORD MOTOR CO (F)
As of 2026-11-09 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case +28% · downside +0% · upside +169%
This is a cyclical normalized-earnings call: TTM to Sep 30, 2026 revenue is $186.97B, TTM operating income is -$7.14B and net income to common is -$7.79B, but the 1.1% cycle-average operating margin gives $2.14B normalized operating income and, with $15.99B D&A, $18.13B normalized EBITDA. GAAP is distorted by one-offs: Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT was +$2.5B while GAAP net loss was $1.3B after $4.2B of pre-tax special items, including $3.6B on BOSK, and Q1 2026 included a $1.3B IEEPA tariff benefit. At today's 1.4x EV/EBITDA, normalized EBITDA implies $25.4B EV and, after $34.11B cash/ST investments, about $59.5B equity, +28.3% versus the $46.37B market cap; TTM EBITDA at the same multiple is roughly today's value, so downside is about +0.3%. The upside case uses a 5.0x named-peer low-end multiple only because FY2026 adjusted EBIT guidance was raised to $10.5-$11B on 2026-10-28 and the Executive Chair bought 140,000 Class B shares at $13.82 on 2026-02-19; that gives $90.7B EV and +169.0%. Base is just below the +30% long threshold, so the call is watch, not long: the market is missing normalized cash-backed earnings, but the re-rate is not yet the base case.
Key numbers
- Share price: $12.44
- Market cap: $46.37B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $186.97B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 1.4x
- Price / book: 1.26x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Ford makes money by selling Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through dealers, and by financing vehicles and dealers through Ford Credit. S24 shows revenue grew from $127.14B in FY2020 to $187.27B in FY2025, while operating income swung from -$4.41B in FY2020 to -$9.17B in FY2025 after positive FY2021-FY2024. The latest 10-K shows 2025 U.S. sales of 84,113 EVs, 228,072 hybrids, and 1,891,939 ICE vehicles; the oldest shows FY2020 wholesale volume of 4.187M vehicles and a 10,717-dealer network.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
Ford has North American scale (13.2% U.S. and 15.2% Canada FY2025 share), brand/trademark recognition, and a captive finance arm, but the supplied record does not show a durable margin advantage: operating income was negative in FY2020 and FY2025 and positive $4.52B-$6.28B in FY2021-FY2024, with a FY2025 net loss to common of $8.18B. China share fell to 1.3% in FY2025, and U.S. EV sales fell to 84,113 from 97,865, so strength is concentrated in ICE/hybrid scale in North America. The sources refer to competitors only generically as 'other OEMs'/'competitors' and do not provide the KEY NUMBERS normalized operating income or TTM figures.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $49.5 billion, down 2% year over year, with net income of $2.049 billion and Company adjusted EBIT of $2.658 billion; adjusted EBIT margin rose to 5.4% while net margin fell to 4.1%. First nine months 2026 Company adjusted EBIT was $8.649 billion and adjusted EBIT margin was 6.1%. At September 30, 2026, Company cash was $25.3 billion and liquidity was $46.4 billion. Management raised the low end of FY2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.5-$11 billion and kept adjusted free cash flow guidance at $6-$7 billion.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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