QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
EVERSOURCE ENERGY (ES)
As of 2026-11-09 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -24% · upside +23%
Using section 13's TTM base to Sep 30, 2026 — net income to common $1.43B (N15), 377.03M shares (N5) — at today's 18.4x P/E (N30), the base value is $1.43B × 18.4 ÷ 377.03M = $69.79, essentially the $69.84 close (N1). A downside with net income falling to $1.08B, about -24% from TTM, is $1.08B × 18.4 ÷ 377.03M = $52.70, -24.5%; an upside using the 2026 non-GAAP recurring EPS midpoint of $4.66 (S99) is $4.66 × 18.4 = $85.74, +22.8%. The market is not offering a clear bargain: 18.4x P/E is mid-peer, TTM free cash flow is -$51.6M (N18), and the March 19, 2026 FERC ROE cut and July 29, 2026 PURA storm disallowance are real regulatory drags. Support comes from the 4.83% dividend yield (S60), the Aquarion sale proceeds earmarked for debt, and reaffirmed 5%-7% EPS growth, but risk/reward is roughly balanced. I would watch, not go long or short, until either earnings power or the regulatory overhang resolves.
Key numbers
- Share price: $69.84
- Market cap: $26.33B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $13.95B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 11.0x
- P/E (TTM): 18.4x
- Price / book: 1.60x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Eversource is a FERC-regulated utility holding company that earns its return on wires and pipes, not on the commodity: the supply portion of electric and gas bills is passed through with no mark-up and no return, while distribution, transmission and local delivery charges carry the return. Four reportable segments — electric distribution (CL&P, NSTAR Electric, PSNH), electric transmission, natural gas distribution (NSTAR Gas, EGMA, Yankee Gas) and water distribution (Aquarion) — cover substantially all consolidated revenue. Between FY2020 and FY2025 revenue rose from $8.90B to $13.55B and operating income from $1.99B to $2.99B, while capex rose from $2.94B to $4.16B against operating cash flow of $1.68B and $4.11B respectively, with diluted shares up from 339.85M to 371.26M. The main structural changes between the oldest (FY2020) and newest (FY2025) annual reports are the EGMA gas acquisition from NiSource/Columbia Gas of Massachusetts on October 9, 2020, the Q3 2024 exit from offshore wind, and Aquarion now described as being in a sale status with a regulatory denial and appeal.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not support a durable competitive advantage. S27 shows large revenue and operating income, but net income to common was volatile and negative in FY2023, capex exceeded operating cash flow every year FY2020-FY2025, and diluted shares rose. S25 describes utility operations and cyber/regulatory burdens but no brand, licence, network, switching-cost or scale moat, and no competitor is named.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest 10-Q shows Q3 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.92, down from $0.99 in Q3 2025, with no non-GAAP adjustments in the quarter; nine-month GAAP EPS of $2.67 is depressed by three separately identified after-tax charges, while non-GAAP EPS was $3.52 versus $3.64. Liquidity is supported by $3.07 billion of nine-month operating cash flow and $525.4 million of cash at September 30, 2026. Guidance is numeric: 2026 non-GAAP recurring EPS of $4.62-$4.70 and 5%-7% long-term EPS growth through 2030 off a $4.66 base. The 10-Q risk-factor update centers on the FERC ROE refund order and possible additional losses.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.