QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $645.39 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case +18% · downside -19% · upside +30%
EMCOR is a net-cash, high-ROIC contractor whose 2026-10-29 Q3 release showed record revenue of $5.54B (+28.8%), non-GAAP EPS of $9.60 (+46.1%), RPOs of $18.57B (+47.2%) and raised FY2026 guidance to $34.50-$35.50, yet the stock closed at $645.39 on 2026-11-10, 32.2% below its high. At the independent peer-median 21.5x P/E on TTM net income of $1.54B, my base value is about $758/share (+17%), and a re-rate to FIX's 23.9x P/E on the same earnings, supported by the 2026-10-29 guidance raise and $500M buyback, gives about $841 (+30%). The downside assumes a -5% earnings slip priced at a compressed 15.6x P/E, about $520 (-19.5%), so risk/reward is positive but the anchored base only clears the +15% watch threshold, not the +30% long threshold. I would watch, not buy, because the operating record and balance sheet are strong but the independent-anchor base is +17% and Q3 Mechanical Construction margin fell to 12.1% from 12.9%, leaving execution and mix risk alive.
Key numbers
- Share price: $645.39
- Market cap: $28.26B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $19.84B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 12.0x
- P/E (TTM): 18.3x
- FCF yield: 5.2%
- Price / book: 6.61x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): none flagged
- EV / FCF (TTM): 18.5x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +16.6%
- ROIC (TTM): 38.5%
- WACC: 11.3%
- Economic profit spread: +27.2 pts
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
EMCOR is a US specialty contractor with FY2025 revenue of $16.99B, organized into four US reportable segments: electrical construction/facilities, mechanical construction/facilities, building services, and industrial services. FY2025 revenue mix was 72% construction, 21% building services, and 7% industrial, with 97% US and 3% UK before the December 2025 UK sale. The oldest annual report here (FY2020) shows $8.8B revenue, ~85 subsidiaries, ~33,000 employees, and a 62/29/9 construction/building/industrial mix; by FY2025 the company was larger, more construction-weighted, and US-only after the UK exit.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
EMCOR does not look like a wide-moat business: the 10-K describes highly fragmented electrical/mechanical and building-services markets, thousands of small competitors, competitive bidding, and relatively few barriers to entry. Its claimed advantage is narrower: scale, financial strength, surety bonding, prefabrication/VDC/BIM capability, safety record, and a large skilled workforce. The XBRL history supports strong operating execution, with operating income rising from $256.8M in FY2020 to $1.71B in FY2025 and $2.07B TTM to 2026-09-30. Competition is broad, including APi, Comfort Systems, Quanta, MasTec, Tutor Perini, and many regional and local firms.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a record quarter: revenue $5.54B (+28.8% reported, +25.5% organic), gross margin 20.0%, and operating income $545.8M (9.8%) after a $34.0M non-cash impairment; non-GAAP operating income was $579.8M (10.5%). Net income was $399.9M ($9.04 diluted; $9.60 non-GAAP), RPOs were a record $18.57B, and nine-month operating cash flow was $1.09B. Management raised FY2026 revenue, margin and EPS guidance and added $500M to the buyback authorization. The computed risk-factor diff flags four new/rewritten paragraphs, including cyclicality and data-center/AI capital spending dependence.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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