QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (EIX)
As of 2026-11-09 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +1% · downside -23% · upside +78%
At the TTM to Sep 30, 2026 base, 7.1x EV/EBITDA (N28) on $9.23B EBITDA (N14) gives $65.5B EV, less $42.44B net debt (N23) = $23.1B equity, or $60.0/share on 384.79M shares (N5), only +1% from the $59.37 close (N1), so today's multiple already prices the base. The downside uses 6.5x because the dated Aug 31, 2026 legislative rejection and Sept 2, 2026 JPMorgan cut (S19, S18) justify a lower risk multiple: $60.0B EV - $42.44B = $17.6B, or $45.6 (-23%). The upside uses 9.0x only because the dated Oct 29-30, 2026 Q3 2026 guidance reaffirmation and no-common-equity capex plan (S5, S10) support a re-rate: $83.1B - $42.44B = $40.6B, or $105.6 (+78%). The 6.3x P/E (N31) is on GAAP net income to common TTM of $3.64B (N15), while management's 2026 core EPS guidance is $5.90-$6.20 and GAAP basic EPS $5.66-$5.96 after $(0.24) non-core (S26, S99), so the earnings cheapness is less clean than the screen suggests. With negative TTM FCF of -$132.0M (N18) and the Eaton Fire liability still open (S25), the asymmetry is not enough for a long until a dated wildfire catalyst appears; watch.
Key numbers
- Share price: $59.37
- Market cap: $22.84B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $18.56B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 7.1x
- P/E (TTM): 6.3x
- Price / book: 1.28x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
The provided source set is a single six-year XBRL table, so it supports a financial history of Edison International from FY2020 to FY2025 but not a segment, channel or unit-economics description of how the company makes money. Revenue was $13.58B in FY2020 and $19.32B in FY2025; operating income was $1.22B and $7.09B, respectively. FY2025 net income to common was $4.46B versus $1.28B in FY2024, but the source does not identify one-off items behind those figures.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
SCE's core advantage is a regulated transmission-and-distribution network with revenue decoupled from sales volume: the 10-K says retail competition affects customer rates but not SCE's earnings. The moat is not absolute -- 12 CCAs took ~21% of service load at YE2025, and Direct Access plus CCA load is forecast at ~15% and ~21% by end-2026 -- but SCE keeps the wires customer. The XBRL shows revenue up from $13.58B (FY2020) to $19.32B (FY2025) and operating income up from $1.22B to $7.09B, but the FY2025 jump from $2.93B in FY2024 is unexplained in the table, so clean margin durability cannot be confirmed.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a down quarter against a hard comparison: EIX GAAP net income $724 million ($1.88/share) and core earnings $738 million ($1.92/share) versus $832 million ($2.16) and $901 million ($2.34) in Q3 2025, with SCE revenue down $853 million to $4,887 million largely on lower pass-through costs ($506 million) and the retroactive 2025 GRC revenue booked in Q3 2025 ($330 million). Nine-month core earnings still rose at SCE ($2,129 million versus $2,088 million) on the 2025 GRC escalation mechanism, while reported nine-month net income fell to $1,789 million from $2,611 million because 2025 carried a $1,338 million wildfire-related non-core benefit. The Eaton Fire remains the open liability: $1.8 billion of settlement losses recorded through September 30, 2026, mostly offset by $917 million self-insurance, $859 million Wildfire Fund and $70 million FERC recoveries, with more material losses called probable and no estimable range. Management reaffirmed 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90 to $6.20.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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