QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Duke Energy CORP (DUK)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -1% · downside -2% · upside +32%
Using the SECULAR TTM to Sep 30, 2026 base, today's 11.0x EV/EBITDA gives 11.0 x $17.13B = $188.43B EV, less $89.39B net debt = $99.04B equity, / 779.71M shares = $127.03, or -0.6% from $127.78; the lease-adjusted downside uses $90.66B net debt for $125.39, or -1.9%. The upside is not today's multiple: 13.0x x $17.13B = $222.69B EV, less $90.66B = $132.03B equity, / 779.71M = $169.33, or +32.5%, and I allow that rerate only because the 15.4-GW data-center pipeline targeted for ESA conversion by mid-2027, $103B committed capex and 5-7% EPS growth give a non-valuation reason for peer-like treatment (S56, S82, S7). The market is not missing the current franchise: 18.7x P/E and 11.0x EV/EBITDA are fair, and -$5.16B FCF plus $90.66B lease-adjusted net debt cap the margin of safety. The base case is not +30% so a long fails the rule, while the downside is too shallow for a short; I would watch, not buy, until price or delivered EBITDA/ESA conversion creates the long case.
Key numbers
- Share price: $127.78
- Market cap: $99.63B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $33.30B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 11.0x
- P/E (TTM): 18.7x
- Price / book: 1.80x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Duke Energy is a fully regulated U.S. utility holding company: in the FY2025 10-K its business is two reportable segments, Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I, ~8.7 million retail electric customers across six states, ~55,713 MW of owned generation) and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I, ~1.8 million gas customers), with everything else in Other — down from three segments in the FY2020 10-K, which still carried Commercial Renewables. Money is made by earning a commission-approved return on generation, transmission and distribution capital, not on commodity: fuel and purchased-power costs are passed through, so fuel-price moves do not hit operating results unless a commission finds them imprudent. Scale grew between the two annual reports: revenue $23.25B FY2020 to $31.74B FY2025, operating income $4.57B to $8.63B, net income to common $1.27B to $4.91B, while capex outran operating cash flow ($14.02B vs $12.33B in FY2025).
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The advantage is a regulated monopoly, not a brand: GU&I is the sole natural gas provider in its retail territories, and rates are set by state commissions to recover cost plus a reasonable return on invested capital (S25), so earnings are set by the regulator and by capital invested, not by pricing power. The record supports an improving but capital-hungry franchise: operating income rose from $4.57B in FY2020 to $8.63B in FY2025 with the operating margin moving from 19.7% to 27.2% (computed from S28 figures), while capex of $14.02B in FY2025 exceeded operating cash flow of $12.33B and buybacks were zero in all six years. Competition is real but indirect - electricity for space heating, water heating and cooking, plus propane, fuel oil and renewables - and the 2026 10-K adds a rewritten paragraph about utilities and energy suppliers building generation behind the meter, customer self-generation and municipal utilities (S27). The main threat to the advantage is regulatory: rates can be cut if earnings exceed allowed returns and exclusive rights could be eroded (S26).
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 showed higher electric sales and operating income: EU&I revenue rose $567 million to $8,747 million and total GWh sales rose 4,267 to 77,147, while EU&I operating income rose $420 million to $2,734 million. Reported and adjusted EPS were both $1.99, and the release narrowed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70-$6.80. The nine-month GAAP results include special items, so they should not be read as clean operating earnings. The Q3 10-Q risk-factor item is an incorporation-by-reference update, while the computed 10-K diff identifies new or rewritten risk paragraphs.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.